Alcohol use among American Indian high school youths from adolescence and young adulthood: A latent Markov model
Alcohol use among American Indian high school youths from adolescence and young adulthood: A latent Markov model
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DOI：
10.15288/jsad.2008.69.666
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发表时间：
2008-09-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Whitesell, Nancy Rumbaugh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mitchell, Christina M.;Beals, Janette;Whitesell, Nancy Rumbaugh
目的：我们探讨了美国印第安青年的饮酒模式以及6年后的并发预测因素和发展结果。方法：这项研究使用了三年来从861名来自两个西部部落的14-20岁的美国印第安青年中收集的六个半年一次的数据。使用潜在马尔可夫模型，我们研究了过去6个月内青少年饮酒的潜在状态变化模式，将这些饮酒状态组合成三种潜在状态，描述了3年内的变化模式：戒酒者，不一致的饮酒者和一致的饮酒者。然后，我们探讨了潜伏状态的差异，无论是在最初还是在年轻的成年人（20-26岁）。结果：尽管我们也发现了变化的证据，但随着时间的推移，酒精使用和不使用都相当稳定。尽管青少年时期有一些相当令人不安的饮酒模式，特别是在持续饮酒者中，但大多数年轻人都完成了成年后的重要任务。但青春期的使用模式与成年后的更高水平的物质使用有关。结论：潜在马尔可夫模型提供了一个有用的酒精使用分类，更精细地区分那些年轻人谁否则会被认为是不一致的饮酒者。研究结果还表明，在青春期广泛的干预措施可能不是最重要的，相反，针对以后的酒精和其他药物使用的方案可能是一个更有战略意义的使用往往有限的资源。
Objective: We explored patterns of alcohol use among American Indian youths as well as concurrent predictors and developmental outcomes 6 years later. Method: This study used six semi-annual waves of data collected across 3 years from 861 American Indian youths, ages 14-20 initially, from two western tribes. Using a latent Markov model, we examined patterns of change in latent states of adolescent alcohol use in the past 6 months, combining these states of alcohol use into three latent statuses that described patterns of change across the 3 years: abstainers, inconsistent drinkers, and consistent drinkers. We then explored how the latent statuses differed, both initially and in young adulthood (ages 20-26). Results: Both alcohol use and nonuse were quite stable across time, although we also found evidence of change. Despite some rather troubling drinking patterns as teens, especially among consistent drinkers, most of the youths had achieved important tasks of young adulthood. But patterns of use during adolescence were related to greater levels of substance use in young adulthood. Conclusions: Latent Markov modeling provided a useful categorization of alcohol use that more finely differentiated those youths who would otherwise have been considered inconsistent drinkers. Findings also suggest that broad-based interventions during adolescence may not be the most important ones; instead, programs targeting later alcohol and other drug use may be a more strategic use of often limited resources.