Project Safe Neighborhoods and Violent Crime Trends in US Cities: Assessing Violent Crime Impact
Project Safe Neighborhoods and Violent Crime Trends in US Cities: Assessing Violent Crime Impact
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DOI：
10.1007/s10940-010-9091-9
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发表时间：
2010-06-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Bynum, Timothy S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McGarrell, Edmund F.;Corsaro, Nicholas;Bynum, Timothy S.
自1990年代中期以来，出现了一些旨在解决与帮派、枪支和毒品有关的暴力问题的举措，并显示出在减少暴力犯罪水平方面的希望。这些举措结合了重点威慑和解决问题的进程。这些战略构成了安全社区项目(PSN)的基础，这是一个由司法部实施、由美国检察官办公室协调的国家计划。本文是通过对美国所有10万人口或以上城市的暴力犯罪趋势的分析，初步评估国家实施的PSN倡议的潜在影响。虽然存在一些针对特定地点的研究，考察了当地实施的PSN方案的潜在影响，但到目前为止，还没有国家层面的研究审查PSN是否对暴力犯罪趋势产生了影响。根据PSN工作队是否将其视为治疗城市和PSN方案的实施剂量水平来区分纳入本研究的城市。这使得可以比较82个治疗城市和170个非治疗城市，以及剂量水平的变量。发展了分层广义线性模型(HGLM)，该模型控制了可能影响样本城市暴力犯罪水平的其他因素。结果表明，在同一时期，高剂量环境下的PSN治疗城市的暴力犯罪率出现了统计上的显著下降，尽管下降幅度不大，而非目标城市和低剂量环境下的暴力犯罪率没有显著变化。注意到这一初步分析的局限性，但证据似乎表明，多机构、集中威慑、解决问题的方法有望降低暴力犯罪率。至少，这些调查结果要求继续进行以数据为导向、高度集中、以威慑为基础的减少暴力战略的方案试验。
Since the mid-1990s, a number of initiatives intended to address gang, gun and drug-related violence have arisen and demonstrated promise in reducing levels of violent crime. These initiatives have employed some combination of focused deterrence and problem-solving processes. These strategies formed the basis for Project Safe Neighborhoods (PSN), a national program implemented by the Department of Justice and coordinated by US Attorneys' Offices. This paper is an initial attempt to assess the potential impact of the nationally implemented PSN initiative through an analysis of violent crime trends in all US cities with a population of 100,000 or above. While a number of site specific studies exist examining the potential impact of locally implemented PSN programs, to date no national-level study has examined whether PSN may have had an impact on violent crime trends. Cities included in the current study are distinguished on the basis of whether they were considered a treatment city by the PSN task force and by the level of implementation dosage of the PSN program. This allowed a comparison of 82 treatment cities and 170 non-treatment cities as well as a variable of dosage level. Hierarchical Generalized Linear Models (HGLM) were developed that controlled for other factors that may have affected the level of violent crime across the sample of cities. The results suggested that PSN treatment cities in higher dosage contexts experienced statistically significant, though modest, declines in violent crime whereas non-target cities and low dosage contexts experienced no significant changes in violent crime during the same period. The limitations of this initial analysis are noted but the evidence seems to suggest that the multi-agency, focused deterrence, problem solving approach holds promise for reducing levels of violent crime. At a minimum, these findings call for continued programmatic experimentation with data-driven, highly focused, deterrence-based violence reduction strategies.