Shaping Land Use Change and Ecosystem Restoration in a Water-Stressed Agricultural Landscape to Achieve Multiple Benefits
Shaping Land Use Change and Ecosystem Restoration in a Water-Stressed Agricultural Landscape to Achieve Multiple Benefits
复制标题
DOI：
10.3389/fsufs.2020.00138
复制
发表时间：
2020-08-31
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Butterfield, H. Scott
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bryant, Benjamin P.;Kelsey, T. Rodd;Butterfield, H. Scott
灌溉农业在过去50年中迅速发展，帮助粮食生产跟上人口增长的步伐，但也导致全球栖息地和生物多样性的重大损失。现在，在一些地区，土地退化和水资源负担过重意味着可能需要降低历史产量水平。我们展示了如何分析支持规划栖息地恢复强调农业景观可以恢复生物多样性，并在过渡到可持续发展创造共同利益。我们在加州的圣华金河谷应用我们的方法，那里的地下水法规正在推动重大的土地利用变化。我们将农业经济和土地利用变化模型联系起来，以生成具有不同种植模式的合理景观，包括临时休耕和永久退休。我们发现，大部分减少的种植是通过临时休耕来实现的，但估计仍有86，000公顷永久休耕。然后，我们应用系统的保护规划，以确定优化的恢复解决方案，确保至少10,000公顷的高质量栖息地的每五个代表性的濒危物种，占空间变化的机会成本具体到每个合理的未来景观。这些分析确定了所有土地利用方案所共有的综合区域，在这些区域，恢复可以通过利用无论如何都可能退休的土地，并将一些退休土地从生境价值低的地区转移到生境价值高的地区，以改善生境。我们还显示了潜在的退休的共同利益（来自避免氮负荷和土壤碳封存），虽然这些需要仔细考虑的额外性。我们的方法提供了一个可推广的手段，告知多效益适应规划，以应对农业压力。
Irrigated agriculture has grown rapidly over the last 50 years, helping food production keep pace with population growth, but also leading to significant habitat and biodiversity loss globally. Now, in some regions, land degradation and overtaxed water resources mean historical production levels may need to be reduced. We demonstrate how analytically supported planning for habitat restoration in stressed agricultural landscapes can recover biodiversity and create co-benefits during transitions to sustainability. We apply our approach in California's San Joaquin Valley where groundwater regulations are driving significant land use change. We link agricultural-economic and land use change models to generate plausible landscapes with different cropping patterns, including temporary fallowing and permanent retirement. We find that a large fraction of the reduced cultivation is met through temporary fallowing, but still estimate over 86,000 hectares of permanent retirement. We then apply systematic conservation planning to identify optimized restoration solutions that secure at least 10,000 hectares of high quality habitat for each of five representative endangered species, accounting for spatially varying opportunity costs specific to each plausible future landscape. The analyses identified consolidated areas common to all land use scenarios where restoration could be targeted to enhance habitat by utilizing land likely to be retired anyway, and by shifting some retirement from regions with low habitat value to regions with high habitat value. We also show potential co-benefits of retirement (derived from avoided nitrogen loadings and soil carbon sequestration), though these require careful consideration of additionality. Our approach provides a generalizable means to inform multi-benefit adaptation planning in response to agricultural stressors.