ESTIMATION OF FUTURE DESTRUCTIVE EARTHQUAKES FROM ACTIVE FAULTS ON LAND IN JAPAN
ESTIMATION OF FUTURE DESTRUCTIVE EARTHQUAKES FROM ACTIVE FAULTS ON LAND IN JAPAN
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根据日本陆地上的活动断层对未来破坏性地震的估计
DOI：
10.4294/jpe1952.25.supplement_s251
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发表时间：
1977
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
T. Matsuda
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
T. Matsuda
根据晚第四纪的长期平均滑移率（S），日本陆地上已知的大多数活动断层（=第四纪断层）分为A级（1<S≤10mm/年）、B级（0.1<S≤1mm/年）或C级（0.01<S≤0.1mm/年）。最近以 1:4, 000, 000 的比例编制的活断层地图描述了大多数 A 级和 B 级断层的位置。日本近期历史上陆地破坏性地震的统计表明，C 级断层的数量远多于高级断层，并且未来 1/3 的 6.5 级以上破坏性地震将发生在地图中显示的断层上。日本陆地上的活动断层可能发生的地震震级和复发时间是根据长期滑移率（S）、断层长度（Lt）和迄今为止没有发生地震的时间长度（t）来计算的。陆地上活动断层引起的破坏性地震的复发时间 (R) 约为 1, 000 年或更长。发生率E(=t/R)≥0.5的活动故障在活动故障图中被标记为“预防性故障”。
Most of active faults (=Quaternary faults) known on land in Japan are ranked to class A(1<S≤10mm/year), class B(0.1<S≤1mm/year) or class C(0.01<S≤0.1mm/year), according to a long-term average slip rate (S) during late Quaternary. A map of active faults which was recently compiled in scale of 1:4, 000, 000 describes locations of most faults of class A and class B. Statistics of recent historic on-land destructive earthquakes in Japan imply that the class C faults are much greater in number than the higher classes faults and that one third of future destructive earthquakes greater than magnitude 6.5 would occur from faults shown in the map. Probable magnitude and recurrence time of earthquakes from active faults on land in Japan are calculated based on a long-term slip rate (S), length of fault (Lt) and length of time (t) elapsed without earthquakes up to the present. Recurrence time (R) of destructive earthquakes from an active fault on land is shown to be about 1, 000 years or longer. Active faults with a elapse ratio E(=t/R)≥0.5 are marked in the active fault map as 'precaution faults.'