Inclusion of glacier processes for distributed hydrological modeling at basin scale with application to a watershed in Tianshan Mountains, northwest China
Inclusion of glacier processes for distributed hydrological modeling at basin scale with application to a watershed in Tianshan Mountains, northwest China
复制标题
将冰川过程纳入盆地尺度的分布式水文模型并应用于中国西北部天山的流域
DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.005
复制
发表时间：
2013-01-16
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Chen, Xi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Luo, Yi;Arnold, Jeff;Chen, Xi
在本文中，我们提出：（1）冰川融化、升华/蒸发、积累、物质平衡和退缩的算法;（2）将该算法纳入土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）模型的动态水文响应单元方法;（3）模拟流域尺度的瞬时冰川退缩及其对径流的影响。将改进的SWAT模型应用于新疆天山玛纳斯河流域，结果表明，该模型的Nash-Sutcliff效率为0.65，日径流和水量平衡的偏差为-3.7%。结果表明，在1961 - 1999年的模拟期间，冰川面积减少了11%，这是在其他冰川记录的范围内。平均而言，冰川融化贡献了25%的流量，虽然冰川面积仅占14%的集水区流域面积的MRB。冰川融化量与气温变化呈正相关（R-2 = 0.70，P < 0.001），与降水量呈负相关（R-2 = 0.20，P < 0.005）。结果表明，冰川融化对温度变化的敏感性大于对降水变化的敏感性，这意味着模拟气温升高和降水减少对气候变化的影响需要进一步研究。(C)2012爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
In this paper we proposed: (1) an algorithm of glacier melt, sublimation/evaporation, accumulation, mass balance and retreat; (2) a dynamic Hydrological Response Unit approach for incorporating the algorithm into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model; and (3) simulated the transient glacier retreat and its impacts on streamflow at basin scale. Application of the enhanced SWAT model in the Manas River Basin (MRB) in the Tianshan Mountains in northwest China, shows that the approach is viable as evidenced by a Nash-Sutcliff efficiency of 0.65 and a percent bias of -3.7% for daily streamflow and water balance, respectively. The results indicate that the glacier area decreased by 11% during the simulation period from 1961 to 1999, which is within the range of records from other glaciers. On average, glacier melt contributed 25% to streamflow, although glacier area accounts for only 14% of the catchment drainage area in the MRB. Glacier melt was positively correlated to temperature change (R-2 = 0.70, statistical significance P < 0.001) and negatively correlated to precipitation (R-2 = 0.20, statistical significance P < 0.005). The results indicate that glacier melt was more sensitive to temperature change than to precipitation change, implying that modeling the effects of climate change with increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation should be further studied. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.