The effect of modeling choices on updating intensity-duration-frequency curves and stormwater infrastructure designs for climate change
The effect of modeling choices on updating intensity-duration-frequency curves and stormwater infrastructure designs for climate change
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-019-02649-6
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发表时间：
2020-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Samaras, Constantine
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cook, Lauren M.;McGinnis, Seth;Samaras, Constantine
强度-持续时间-频率(IDF)曲线通常用于雨水基础设施设计，以反映极端降雨的特征，该曲线正在逐步更新，以反映气候变化下降雨的预期变化。用于更新的建模选择导致了很大的不确定性；然而，目前还不清楚这些不确定性对雨水系统的设计和成本有多大影响。这项研究调查了区域气候模式(RCM)集合的空间分辨率的选择和空间调整技术如何影响2020年至2099年期间美国34个城市经气候校正的IDF曲线和由此产生的雨水基础设施设计。在大多数城市，三种空间调整技术和两种RCM空间分辨率之间的IDF值存在显著差异。这些差异有可能改变使用这些选择设计的雨水系统的大小，并更广泛地影响气候影响建模的结果。工程决策的最大变化是从IDF曲线不确定性分布的上界选择设计风暴，在某些情况下，雨水管道的设计尺寸增加了五个增量，成本几乎翻了一番。州和地方机构可以通过制定指导方针来帮助减少这种变异性，例如避免将未来不确定性范围的上限用作设计风暴，而是通过跟踪基础设施随时间推移的性能来考虑不确定性，并使用复原力计划为适应做准备。
Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, commonly used in stormwater infrastructure design to represent characteristics of extreme rainfall, are gradually being updated to reflect expected changes in rainfall under climate change. The modeling choices used for updating lead to large uncertainties; however, it is unclear how much these uncertainties affect the design and cost of stormwater systems. This study investigates how the choice of spatial resolution of the regional climate model (RCM) ensemble and the spatial adjustment technique affect climate-corrected IDF curves and resulting stormwater infrastructure designs in 34 US cities for the period 2020 to 2099. In most cities, IDF values are significantly different between three spatial adjustment techniques and two RCM spatial resolutions. These differences have the potential to alter the size of stormwater systems designed using these choices and affect the results of climate impact modeling more broadly. The largest change in the engineering decision results when the design storm is selected from the upper bounds of the uncertainty distribution of the IDF curve, which changes the stormwater pipe design size by five increments in some cases, nearly doubling the cost. State and local agencies can help reduce some of this variability by setting guidelines, such as avoiding the use of the upper bound of the future uncertainty range as a design storm and instead accounting for uncertainty by tracking infrastructure performance over time and preparing for adaptation using a resilience plan.