Long-term hurricane risk assessment and expected damage to residential structures
Long-term hurricane risk assessment and expected damage to residential structures
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DOI：
10.1016/s0951-8320(01)00086-2
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发表时间：
2001-12-01
影响因子：
8.1
通讯作者：
Sparks, PR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huang, ZG;Rosowsky, DV;Sparks, PR
本文介绍了一项研究的结果，以评估长期的飓风风险在美国东南部使用基于事件的模拟程序。这些风险由（1）统计极端风气候和（2）住宅结构损坏的预期保险损失定义。作者开发的概率飓风事件模型用于评估长期风险。事件模型参数来自对影响美国东南部的风暴的统计分析，包括最大风速半径、中心气压差和登陆。位置风暴轨迹和衰减率50年的平均重现间隔（MRI）的梯度水平和地面阵风风速进行评估，使用模拟分析的结果进行调查的区域。当再加上一个损害模型，也是由作者开发的，从基于事件的模拟分析的结果被用来提供预期损失的估计。北卡罗来纳州、南卡罗来纳州和佛罗里达被用来证明这一程序对评估预期损失的适用性。设定设计风速以及风险一致的保险费率的影响进行了讨论。(C)2001爱思唯尔科技有限公司版权所有。
This paper presents results from a study to evaluate long-term hurricane risks in the Southeastern United States using event-based simulation procedures. These risks are defined by (1) the statistical extreme wind climate, and (2) the expected insured losses from damage to residential structures. A probabilistic hurricane event model developed by the authors is used to evaluate long-term risks. The event model parameters were derived from a statistical analysis of storms affecting the Southeastern United States and include radius of maximum winds, central pressure difference, landfall. location, storm track, and decay rate. The 50-year mean recurrence interval (MRI) gradient-level and surface gust wind speeds are evaluated for the region investigated using results from the simulation analysis. When coupled with a damage model, also developed by the authors, the results from the event-based simulation analysis are used to provide estimates of the expected losses. The states of North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida are used to demonstrate the applicability of this procedure for evaluating expected losses. Implications for setting design wind speeds as well as risk-consistent insurance rates are discussed. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.