Changes in Land Cover and Management Affect Heat Stress and Labor Capacity
Changes in Land Cover and Management Affect Heat Stress and Labor Capacity
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DOI：
10.1029/2022ef002909
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发表时间：
2023-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Orlov, Anton;De Hertog, Steven;Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich
预计全球变暖将加剧热应激。此外，土地覆盖和土地管理变化（LCLMC）的生物地球物理效应可以显著改变局地和非局地的温度和相对湿度。因此，LCLMC会影响热环境下安全从事体力劳动的职业能力（劳动能力）。然而，这些影响从未使用多模式设置在全球范围内量化。基于三个完全耦合的地球系统模型（ESMs）进行的(a)农田扩张、(b)灌溉扩张和(c)造林的风格化敏感性实验结果，我们评估了局部和非局部对热应激和劳动能力的影响。我们发现LCLMC导致了温度的显著变化；然而，伴随的湿度变化可以在很大程度上减少对湿热的综合影响。此外，农田扩张和造林导致昼夜温度响应不一致，这对劳动能力有很强的影响。在整个欧洲稳定机制中，结果在符号和幅度上都参差不齐。总体而言，在最温暖的季节，LCLMC对低纬度地区的热应激和劳动能力产生了不可忽视的影响。在某些地区，由于个别LCLMC选项的局部效应，月平均劳动能力的变化可能达到-14和+15个百分点。因此，在设计lclmc相关政策以确保可持续发展时，应考虑lclmc对热应激的影响及其对适应的影响。
Global warming is expected to exacerbate heat stress. Additionally, biogeophysical effects of land cover and land management changes (LCLMC) could substantially alter temperature and relative humidity locally and non-locally. Thereby, LCLMC could affect the occupational capacity to safely perform physical work under hot environments (labor capacity). However, these effects have never been quantified globally using a multi-model setup. Building on results from stylized sensitivity experiments of (a) cropland expansion, (b) irrigation expansion, and (c) afforestation conducted by three fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs), we assess the local as well as non-local effects on heat stress and labor capacity. We found that LCLMC leads to substantial changes in temperature; however, the concomitant changes in humidity could largely diminish the combined impact on moist heat. Moreover, cropland expansion and afforestation cause inconsistent responses of day- and night-time temperature, which has strong implications for labor capacity. Across the ESMs, the results are mixed in terms of sign and magnitude. Overall, LCLMC result in non-negligible impacts on heat stress and labor capacity in low-latitude regions during the warmest seasons. In some locations, the changes of monthly average labor capacity, which are induced by the local effects of individual LCLMC options, could reach -14 and +15 percentage points. Thus, LCLMC-induced impacts on heat stress and their consequences for adaptation should be accounted for when designing LCLMC-related policies to ensure sustainable development.