Relationships between the history of thermal stress and the relative risk of diseases of Caribbean corals.
Relationships between the history of thermal stress and the relative risk of diseases of Caribbean corals.
复制标题
热应激历史与加勒比珊瑚疾病相对风险之间的关系。
作者：
C. Randall;A. G. Jordán;E. Muller;R. Woesik
加勒比地区珊瑚疾病的增加导致珊瑚数量大幅度减少。珊瑚疾病是珊瑚宿主、病原体和环境之间复杂相互作用的结果。然而，这些组成部分中的每一个对珊瑚疾病流行的相对影响尚不清楚。历史上的热应力事件在多大程度上影响了当代珊瑚疾病的流行，以及珊瑚种群对热应力的潜在调整，也是未知数。我们使用贝叶斯方法来检验这一假设，即在2012年，珊瑚疾病的四个迹象（白色迹象、黑点、黑带和黄色迹象）的相对风险在具有不同热历史的珊瑚礁位置不同。我们对加勒比区域四个地点（10（3）公里）的珊瑚疾病进行了广泛的空间研究，其中两个地点在过去143年（1870-2012年）中有频繁的热异常（约4-6年）的历史，两个地点没有。历史上经历过频繁的热异常的地点有显着更高的风险珊瑚显示白色的迹象，并有较低的风险珊瑚显示黑斑，比历史上没有经历过频繁的热异常的地点。相比之下，至少在我们观察的空间尺度上，热应力的历史与珊瑚显示黑色条带和黄色标志的相对风险之间没有关系。
The putative increase in coral diseases in the Caribbean has led to extensive declines in coral populations. Coral diseases are a consequence of the complex interactions among the coral hosts, the pathogens, and the environment. Yet, the relative influence that each of these components has on the prevalence of coral diseases is unclear. Also unknown is the extent to which historical thermal-stress events have influenced the prevalence of contemporary coral diseases and the potential adjustment of coral populations to thermal stress. We used a Bayesian approach to test the hypothesis that in 2012 the relative risk of four signs of coral disease (white signs, dark spots, black bands, and yellow signs) differed at reef locations with different thermal histories. We undertook an extensive spatial study of coral diseases at four locations in the Caribbean region (10(3) km), two with and two without a history of frequent thermal anomalies (approximately 4-6 years) over the last 143 years (1870-2012). Locations that historically experienced frequent thermal anomalies had a significantly higher risk of corals displaying white signs, and had a lower risk of corals displaying dark spots, than locations that did not historically experience frequent thermal anomalies. By contrast, there was no relationship between the history of thermal stress and the relative risk of corals displaying black bands and yellow signs, at least at the spatial scale of our observations.
DOI：
10.1016/j.jembe.2007.02.015
发表时间：
2007-08-03
影响因子：
2
作者：
Lesser, Michael P.;Bythell, John C.;Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove
通讯作者：
Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove