A modeling study of catchment discharge to Poyang Lake under future climate in China
A modeling study of catchment discharge to Poyang Lake under future climate in China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.quaint.2010.07.004
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发表时间：
2011-11
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Xu-chun Ye;Qi Zhang;Ligang Bai;Q. Hu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xu-chun Ye;Qi Zhang;Ligang Bai;Q. Hu
鄱阳湖是中国最大的淡水湖，是近几十年来遭受极端干旱和洪涝灾害的地区的重要水资源和标志性生态系统。该湖的水位受到分水岭流入的严重影响，也受到来自湖流域北部的长江的影响。评估未来气候变化对流域流入的影响以及随后对湖泊水位变化的影响，对于制定当地水资源的有效管理战略和减轻未来的干旱和洪水十分重要。本研究将大比例尺分布式水文模型WATLAC应用于鄱阳湖流域，研究未来气候变化对入湖水量和湖水位变化的可能影响。全球环流模式ECHAM5被用来预测分水岭未来的气候条件。WATLAC的模拟结果表明，与1961-2000年相比，2011-2050年A1B和B1情景的年汇流流量将分别增加2.9%和6.5%，A2情景的年汇流流量将减少5.2%。进一步的分析表明，在三种气候变化情景下，集水入流月分布的变化将导致2-7月湖泊水位上升0.10-1.34m，9-2月下降0.32-1.31m。由此得出结论，未来气候变化对鄱阳湖的影响预计将表现为更多的极端旱涝灾害。
Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China, is an important water resource and iconic ecosystem in a region that has been subjected to extreme droughts and floods in recent decades. The lake’s water level is heavily influenced by the watershed inflows and also by the Yangtze River from the north of the lake basin. Assessing the impact of future climate change on the watershed inflows and the subsequent influence on changes in the lake water level is important for developing effective management strategies for local water resources and for mitigation of future droughts and floods. In this study, the large-scale, distributed hydrological model, WATLAC, was applied to the Poyang lake watershed to study the possible impacts of future climate change on both inflow generation and changes in lake water level. The Global Circulation Model ECHAM5 was used to predict future climate conditions for the watershed. Simulations of WATLAC show that annual catchment inflow will increase by 2.9% and 6.5% for A1B and B1 scenarios, respectively, and will decrease by 5.2% for A2 scenario for 2011–2050 compared to that for 1961–2000. Further analyses demonstrate that changes in monthly distribution of catchment inflow will result in an increase of lake water level of 0.10–1.34m from February to July and a decrease of 0.32–1.31m from September to February under the three climate change scenarios. It is concluded that climate change impacts on Poyang Lake are expected to be manifested with more extreme droughts and floods in the future.