Uncertain future of sustainable fisheries environment in eastern boundary upwelling zones under climate change
Uncertain future of sustainable fisheries environment in eastern boundary upwelling zones under climate change
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DOI：
10.1038/s43247-023-00681-0
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发表时间：
2023-01
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
P. Chang;Gaopeng Xu;J. Kurian;R. Small;G. Danabasoglu;S. Yeager;F. Castruccio;Qiuying Zhang;N. Rosenbloom;P. Chapman
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文献类型：
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作者：
P. Chang;Gaopeng Xu;J. Kurian;R. Small;G. Danabasoglu;S. Yeager;F. Castruccio;Qiuying Zhang;N. Rosenbloom;P. Chapman
根据巴昆假说，由于陆海对比度增加导致沿海风增强，沿海洋东部边界的上升流预计将加剧。在这里，最新的高分辨率气候模拟显示了上升流过程的急剧改善，揭示了未来更复杂的上升流变化。南半球上升流系统显示未来沿海风增强，沿海迅速变暖，而北半球沿海风减弱，变暖趋势相似。巴昆机制无法解释这些变化。热量收支分析表明，上升区的温度变化不仅受垂直Ekman上升流的控制，还受强近岸风应力旋度驱动的水平热平流的影响，而巴昆假设忽略了这一点，耦合模式对比项目的低分辨率模式也不能很好地反映这一点。高分辨率气候模拟还揭示了未来上升流变化的强烈空间变化，这在低分辨率模拟中是没有的。
Upwelling along ocean eastern boundaries is expected to intensify due to coastal wind strengthening driven by increasing land-sea contrast according to the Bakun hypothesis. Here, the latest high-resolution climate simulations that exhibit drastic improvements of upwelling processes reveal far more complex future upwelling changes. The Southern Hemisphere upwelling systems show a future strengthening in coastal winds with a rapid coastal warming, whereas the Northern Hemisphere coastal winds show a decrease with a comparable warming trend. The Bakun mechanism cannot explain these changes. Heat budget analysis indicates that temperature change in the upwelling region is not simply controlled by vertical Ekman upwelling, but also influenced by horizontal heat advection driven by strong near-coast wind stress curl that is neglected in the Bakun hypothesis and poorly represented by the low-resolution models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The high-resolution climate simulations also reveal a strong spatial variation in future upwelling changes, which is missing in the low-resolution simulations.