Do Statistical Reporting Standards Affect What Is Published? Publication Bias in Two Leading Political Science Journals
Do Statistical Reporting Standards Affect What Is Published? Publication Bias in Two Leading Political Science Journals
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DOI：
10.1561/100.00008024
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发表时间：
2008-01-01
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Malhotra, Neil
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gerber, Alan;Malhotra, Neil
由于依赖0.05的显著性水平，我们检查了APSR和AJPS是否存在发表偏倚。我们的分析采用了对发表偏倚的广义解释，我们将其定义为，无论出于何种原因，发表实践导致发表参数估计偏倚时发生的结果。我们使用“卡尺”检验（一种比较异质效应研究的新方法）检验了0.05显著性水平对已发表研究结果模式的影响，发现我们可以在320亿分之一的水平上拒绝无发表偏倚的假设。因此，我们的研究结果提出了一种可能性，即在主要政治科学期刊上报道的结果可能由于出版偏见而具有误导性。我们还讨论了发表偏倚的一些原因，并提出了减少其对研究影响的改革建议。
We examine the APSR and the AJPS for the presence of publication bias due to reliance on the 0.05 significance level. Our analysis employs a broad interpretation of publication bias, which we define as the outcome that occurs when, for whatever reason, publication practices lead to bias in the published parameter estimates. We examine the effect of the 0.05 significance level on the pattern of published findings using a "caliper" test, a novel method for comparing studies with heterogeneous effects, and find that we can reject the hypothesis of no publication bias at the 1 in 32 billion level. Our findings therefore raise the possibility that the results reported in the leading political science journals may be misleading due to publication bias. We also discuss some of the reasons for publication bias and propose reforms to reduce its impact on research.