A Potential Function Approach to the Flow of Play in Soccer
A Potential Function Approach to the Flow of Play in Soccer
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DOI：
10.2202/1559-0410.1048
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发表时间：
2007-01-01
影响因子：
0.8
通讯作者：
Brillinger, David R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Brillinger, David R.
关于足球协会/足球比赛、赛季或赛季组数据统计分析的文献越来越多。相比之下，本文关注的是单个动作，即一系列成功的传球。研究的比赛包含 25 次传球，最终为阿根廷队在 2006 年世界杯上进球。解决的一个问题是如何分析地描述这种特定传球序列的时空运动。基本数据是平面上的点，由直线依次连接。所得的图形代表移动足球的轨迹。这项研究的方法是开发一个有用的势函数，这是一个源自物理学和工程学的概念。特别地，势函数产生可直接通过线性最小二乘法拟合的回归模型。所得势函数可用于简单描述、总结、比较、模拟、预测、模型评估、引导，并用于估计感兴趣的量。这里说明的目的是模拟一场比赛，其中球在两支球队之间来回移动，每支球队都有自己的潜在功能。
There is a growing literature on the statistical analysis of data from association-football/soccer games, seasons or groups of seasons. In contrast this paper is concerned with a single play, that is a sequence of successful passes. The play studied contained 25 passes and ended in a goal for Argentina in World Cup 2006. One question addressed is how to describe analytically the spatial-temporal movement of such a particular sequence of passes.The basic data are points in the plane, successively joined by straight lines. The resulting figure represents the trajectory of the moving soccer ball. The approach of this study is to develop a useful potential function, a concept arising from physics and engineering. In particular the potential function leads to a regression model that may be fit directly by linear least squares.The resulting potential function may be used for simple description, summary, comparison, simulation, prediction, model appraisal, bootstrapping, and employed for estimating quantities of interest. The purpose illustrated here is to simulate play in a game where the ball goes back and forth between two teams each having their own potential function.