Uncertainty in wave energy resource assessment. Part 2: Variability and predictability
Uncertainty in wave energy resource assessment. Part 2: Variability and predictability
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DOI：
10.1016/j.renene.2009.10.027
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发表时间：
2010-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.7
通讯作者：
Challenor, Peter G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mackay, Edward B. L.;Bahaj, AbuBala S.;Challenor, Peter G.
考虑了波浪能转换器（WEC）能量输出估计的不确定性。该研究在两篇文章中介绍。第一篇文章考虑了历史数据的准确性，第二篇文章考虑了波浪气候变化引起的不确定性。平均波况表现出高度的年际变化。此外，许多先前的研究已经证明了波浪气候的长期十年变化。波浪气候的年际和气候变化对长期平均WEC功率的可预测性的影响进行了研究，在苏格兰北海岸的一个地区。在这个位置，平均WEC功率的异常与北大西洋涛动（NAO）指数密切相关。这种联系使许多以前关于NAO的变化及其对气候变化的敏感性的研究结果能够应用于WEC的功率水平。结果表明，在5，10和20年的平均功率水平的变化是大于如果年度功率异常不相关的噪声。它还表明，在波浪农场的生命周期从人为气候变化的变化，在波浪气候的变化很可能是小的自然水平的变化相比。最后，它表明，尽管波动气候的变化相关的不确定性，历史数据的准确性的提高将提高未来WEC产量预测的准确性。(C)2009爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
The uncertainty in estimates of the energy yield from a wave energy converter (WEC) is considered. The study is presented in two articles. The first article considered the accuracy of the historic data and the second article, presented here, considers the uncertainty which arises from variability in the wave climate. Mean wave conditions exhibit high levels of interannual variability. Moreover, many previous studies have demonstrated longer-term decadal changes in wave climate. The effect of interannual and climatic changes in wave climate on the predictability of long-term mean WEC power is examined for an area off the north coast of Scotland. In this location anomalies in mean WEC power are strongly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. This link enables the results of many previous studies on the variability of the NAO and its sensitivity to climate change to be applied to WEC power levels. It is shown that the variability in 5, 10 and 20 year mean power levels is greater than if annual power anomalies were uncorrelated noise. It is also shown that the change in wave climate from anthropogenic climate change over the life time of a wave farm is likely to be small in comparison to the natural level of variability. Finally, it is shown that despite the uncertainty related to variability in the wave climate, improvements in the accuracy of historic data will improve the accuracy of predictions of future WEC yield. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.