Higher temperatures increase suicide rates in the United States and Mexico
Higher temperatures increase suicide rates in the United States and Mexico
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-018-0222-x
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发表时间：
2018-08-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Hsiang, Solomon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Burke, Marshall;Gonzalez, Felipe;Hsiang, Solomon
气候和心理健康之间的联系通常是理论化的，但量化程度仍然很低。特别是，尚不清楚自杀率是否受到气候条件的系统性影响，自杀率是全球主要死亡原因之一。使用美国和墨西哥几十年的综合数据，我们发现，月平均气温每上升1摄氏度，美国各县的自杀率上升0.7%，墨西哥市政当局的自杀率上升2.1%。这种影响在较热的地区与较冷的地区相似，并且不会随着时间的推移而减弱，这表明历史适应有限。对6亿条社交媒体更新中抑郁语言的分析进一步表明，在暖和的时期，精神健康状况会恶化。我们预计，到2050年，未缓解的气候变化(RCP8.5)可能会导致美国和墨西哥总共增加900-4万人自杀(95%的可信区间)，这意味着自杀率的变化与经济衰退、自杀预防计划或枪支限制法律的估计影响相当。
Linkages between climate and mental health are often theorized but remain poorly quantified. In particular, it is unknown whether the rate of suicide, a leading cause of death globally, is systematically affected by climatic conditions. Using comprehensive data from multiple decades for both the United States and Mexico, we find that suicide rates rise 0.7% in US counties and 2.1% in Mexican municipalities for a 1 degrees C increase in monthly average temperature. This effect is similar in hotter versus cooler regions and has not diminished over time, indicating limited historical adaptation. Analysis of depressive language in >600 million social media updates further suggests that mental well-being deteriorates during warmer periods. We project that unmitigated climate change (RCP8.5) could result in a combined 9-40 thousand additional suicides (95% confidence interval) across the United States and Mexico by 2050, representing a change in suicide rates comparable to the estimated impact of economic recessions, suicide prevention programmes or gun restriction laws.