The Induced Innovation Hypothesis and Energy-Saving Technological Change
The Induced Innovation Hypothesis and Energy-Saving Technological Change
复制标题
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.223777
复制
发表时间：
1998-03
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
R. Newell;A. Jaffe;Robert Stavins
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
R. Newell;A. Jaffe;Robert Stavins
根据希克斯的诱导创新假说，在过去的二十年里，能源价格的上涨应该会诱导节能创新。我们制定的假设具体使用的产品特性模型的能源使用耐用消费品，扩大希克斯的假设，让政府效率标准也诱导创新的可能性。通过特征转换面的估计，我们发现，技术变革使空调的总资本和运营成本减少了一半，水加热减少了约五分之一。虽然这些产品的总体创新速度似乎与能源价格和法规无关，但有证据表明，创新的方向对能源价格的变化作出了反应。特别是，能源价格上涨促使创新朝着降低生产更节能产品所固有的资本成本权衡的方向发展。此外，能源价格的变化也导致了供销售的技术上可行的车型的变化。我们的估计表明，在过去20年中，这些产品的新型号菜单的平均能源效率的改进中，约有四分之一到一半与1973年以来的能源价格上涨有关。我们还发现，这种对价格变化的反应大幅增加后，产品标签的要求生效，最低效率标准有一个显着的积极影响，平均效率水平。尽管如此，这些技术的效率提高似乎有相当大的一部分是自主的。
It follows from Hicks' induced innovation hypothesis that rising energy prices in the last two decades should have induced energy-saving innovation. We formulate the hypothesis concretely using a product-characteristics model of energy-using consumer durables, augmenting Hicks' hypothesis to allow for the possibility that government efficiency standards also induce innovation. Through estimation of characteristics transformation surfaces, we find that technological change reduced the total capital and operating costs of air air conditioning by half and water heating by about one-fifth. Although the rate of overall innovation in these products appears to be independent of energy prices and regulations, the evidence suggests that the direction of innovation has been responsive to energy price changes. In particular, energy price increases induced innovation in a direction that lowered the capital cost tradeoffs inherent in producing more energy-efficiency products. In addition, energy price changes induced changes in the subset of technically feasible models that were offered for sale. Our estimates indicate that about one-quarter to one-half of the improvements in mean energy-efficiency of the menu of new models for these products over the last two decades were associated with rising energy prices since 1973. We also find that this responsiveness to price changes increased substantially after product labeling requirements came into effect, and that minimum efficiency standards had a significant positive effect on average efficiency levels. Nonetheless, a sizeable portion of efficiency improvements in these technologies appears to have been autonomous.