Use of regional climate models in impacts assessments and adaptations studies from continental to regional and local scales
Use of regional climate models in impacts assessments and adaptations studies from continental to regional and local scales
复制标题
使用区域气候模型进行从大陆到区域和地方尺度的影响评估和适应研究
DOI：
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Ambrizzi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Marengo;T. Ambrizzi
区域气候模式（RCMs）是生成高分辨率气候变化情景的有用工具，可用于气候影响和适应研究。耦合大气-海洋全球气候模式（aogcm）是传统上用于生成气候变化预估和情景的模拟工具。然而，目前aogcm的水平大气分辨率仍然比较粗糙，约为300 km，区域气候经常受到较小尺度的强迫和环流的影响。因此，aogcm不能明确地捕捉表征世界许多地区气候变量特征的精细尺度结构，而这是许多影响评估研究所需要的。情景的空间分辨率问题必须放在气候变化其他不确定性的背景下考虑。关于气候变化影响和适应评估的研究和分析认识到，此类研究中存在若干不确定性来源，这些不确定性助长了最终评估的不确定性。在巴西和南美洲，高分辨率气候情景对影响和适应研究的重要性仍有待深入探讨。从区域气候模式结果开发的高分辨率情景仅在过去五年中才在世界各地应用于影响评估，例如在北美和欧洲，作为国际项目的一部分。这些活动大多与在国家一级实施《联合国气候变化框架公约》国家气候变化信息通报情景有关。在目前的研究中，主要是在农业和水资源方面，基于空间分辨率的估算影响存在显著差异。因此，有必要在南美洲建立区域气候变化情景。
Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are useful tools for generating high resolution climate change scenarios for use in climate impacts and adaptation studies. Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCMs) are the modeling tools traditionally used for generating climate change projections and scenarios. However, the horizontal atmospheric resolution of present day AOGCMs is still relatively coarse, order of 300 km, and regional climate is often affected by forcing and circulations that occur at smaller scales. As a result, AOGCMs cannot explicitly capture the fine scale structure that characterizes climatic variables in many regions of the world and that is needed for many impact assessment studies. The issue of the spatial resolution in scenarios must be put in the context of other uncertainties of climate change. Studies and analyses of climate change impact and adaptation assessments recognize that there are a number of sources of uncertainty in such studies which contribute to uncertainty in the final assessment. The importance of high resolution climate scenarios for impacts and adaptation studies remains to be thoroughly explored in Brazil and South America. High resolution scenarios developed from regional climate model results have been applied to impacts assessments only in the past five years in various parts of the world, as in North America and Europe as part of international projects. Most of these activities have linked to implementation of scenarios for the UNFCC National Communications on Climate Change at the country level. In studies so far, mainly concerning agriculture and water resources, significant differences in the estimated impacts based on spatial resolution are found. Therefore, there is a need for regional climate change scenarios in South America.