Selecting climate change scenarios using impact‐relevant sensitivities
Selecting climate change scenarios using impact‐relevant sensitivities
复制标题
使用影响相关敏感性选择气候变化情景
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
P. Mote
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Vano;John B. Kim;D. Rupp;P. Mote
气候影响研究往往需要选择少量的气候情景。理想情况下，一个子集的模拟既（1）适当地代表了对所调查影响最重要的变量的可能未来范围，（2）来自全球气候模型（GCM），为感兴趣地区的未来气候提供了合理的结果。我们展示了一种方法来选择一个子集的GCM，结合这两个概念，并提供深入了解气候影响的范围。为了表示生态系统过程如何响应预测的未来变化，我们有条不紊地采样，使用一个简单的敏感性分析，生态系统变量如何本地响应预测的区域温度和降水量的变化。我们说明了我们的方法在太平洋西北部，重点是（a）在关键季节的径流量的变化，水管理和（B）每年的植被碳的变化。
Climate impact studies often require the selection of a small number of climate scenarios. Ideally, a subset would have simulations that both (1) appropriately represent the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation and (2) come from global climate models (GCMs) that provide plausible results for future climate in the region of interest. We demonstrate an approach to select a subset of GCMs that incorporates both concepts and provides insights into the range of climate impacts. To represent how an ecosystem process responds to projected future changes, we methodically sample, using a simple sensitivity analysis, how an ecosystem variable responds locally to projected regional temperature and precipitation changes. We illustrate our approach in the Pacific Northwest, focusing on (a) changes in streamflow magnitudes in critical seasons for water management and (b) changes in annual vegetation carbon.