'Tribal balancing': exclusionary elite coalitions and Zambia's 2021 elections
'Tribal balancing': exclusionary elite coalitions and Zambia's 2021 elections
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“部落平衡”：排他性精英联盟和赞比亚 2021 年选举
DOI：
10.1080/17531055.2023.2233729
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
Beardsworth N
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Beardsworth N
总统可以获得挑战者无法获得的一系列资源，而最重要的资源往往来自对国家的控制。这使得现任者能够建立更具包容性的精英联盟，将客户资源分配给他们的政治基础，并增选反对派政治家。内阁和政府的任命是精英容纳的一些最明显、最直接和最可识别的迹象，非洲总统更有可能建立包容性联盟，以确保他们的生存。在赞比亚，均衡的区域代表性-俗称“部落平衡”-在公众的想象中占有重要地位。但在2015年至2021年期间，伦古总统没有利用现任总统的优势建立一个种族包容的联盟，而是利用内阁任命和高级政府职位来海岸自己的基础。这是由一个排斥运动，重点是反对派领导人的种族推动爱国阵线的基础投票反对派。本文通过对内阁任命和竞选活动报道的分析，说明伦古如何寻求建立一个排他性的联盟，加剧种族分裂。这有助于辩论精英何时以及为何可能使用排他性策略，以及他们何时可能无法产生预期的结果。
Presidents have access to a range of resources unavailable to challengers, and often the most important are derived from control of the state. This allows incumbents to build more inclusive elite coalitions, distribute clientelist resources to their political base and co-opt opposition politicians. Cabinet and government appointments are some of the most visible, direct and identifiable indications of elite accommodation, and African presidents are more likely to build inclusive coalitions to ensure their survival. In Zambia, balanced regional representation – popularly known as “tribal balancing” – has held an important place in the public imagination. But between 2015 and 2021, rather than using incumbent advantage to build an ethnically inclusive alliance, President Lungu used cabinet appointments and senior government positions to shore up his base. This was bolstered by an exclusionary campaign that focused on the opposition leader’s ethnicity to push the PF’s base to vote against the opposition. This article uses an analysis of cabinet appointments and coverage of the election campaign to illustrate how Lungu sought to build an exclusionary coalition and exacerbate ethnic cleavages. This contributes to debates on when and why elites might use exclusionary strategies, and when they might fail to produce the desired outcome.