The Vintage Effect in Tfp-Growth: An Analysis of the Age Structure of Capital
The Vintage Effect in Tfp-Growth: An Analysis of the Age Structure of Capital
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全要素生产率增长中的年份效应：资本年龄结构分析
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.556933
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
E. Wolff
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Gittleman;Thijs ten Raa;E. Wolff
资本的年龄结构在衡量生产率方面起着重要作用。有人认为，20世纪70年代的经济放缓可归因于资本存量的老化。在本文中，我们将年龄结构纳入生产率测量。一个命题证明了纳尔逊（1964）公式是错误的.我们的最后一个命题表明，在资本存量老化的时候，包含年份效应会促使测量的生产率增长向上修正。在这里，如果投资/资本比率福尔斯低于资本年龄的倒数，那么资本年龄就是资本年龄，正如第一个命题所表明的那样。这项分析建立在对葡萄酒年份的严格统计基础上。我们将经济分析局的资本年龄数据转化为过时率的衡量标准。从经验上讲，为修正生产率增长的年份效应，需要根据年龄数据估计陈旧和折旧参数。结果表明，在效率单位的资本存量的使用确实会导致一些平滑的全要素生产率的增长随着时间的推移。在20世纪50年代，当投资加速时，年份调整后的资本增长率大大超过了资本增长率，年份调整后的TFP增长率大大低于未经调整的TFP增长率。20世纪70年代的生产率放缓有所改善。
The age structure of capital plays an important role in the measurement of productivity. It has been argued that the slowdown in the 1970's can be ascribed to the aging of the stock of capital. In this paper we incorporate the age structure in productivity measurement. A proposition proves that Nelson's (1964) formula is wrong. Our final proposition shows that inclusion of the vintage effect prompts an upward correction of measured productivity growth in times of an aging stock of capital. Here capital ages if the investment/capital ratio falls short of the inverse of the capital age, as a first proposition shows. The analysis rests on a rigorous accounting for vintages. We translate the Bureau of Economic Analysis' age of capital data into a measure of rates of obsolescence. Empirically, the correction of productivity growth for the vintage effect requires an estimate of the obsolescence and depreciation parameters on the basis of age data. The results indicate that the use of capital stock in efficiency units does cause some smoothing of Total Factor Productivity growth over time. In the 1950s, when investment accelerated, the vintage-adjusted capital growth rate well exceeded the BEA growth rate, and vintage-adjusted TFP growth is significantly lower than unadjusted TFP growth. The measured productivity slowdown of the 1970s is somewhat ameliorated.