Evaluation of weather catastrophe data for use in climate change investigations
Evaluation of weather catastrophe data for use in climate change investigations
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DOI：
10.1023/a:1005348112541
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发表时间：
1998-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Changnon, SA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Changnon, D;Changnon, SA
对财产保险业编制的1950-1994年重大天气损失数据集进行了审查，以评估其在气候变化研究中的潜在效用，并用于评估美国最近极端损失的相关性。该行业开发了一种程序，将这些历史上的风暴损失调整为不断变化的因素，包括美元价值、每一地区的保险金额以及社会对破坏性风暴的敏感性。对这些调整后的天气灾难的时间频率和损失的分析显示，根据损失金额的不同而有所不同。自1975年以来，造成3500万至1亿美元损失的灾难的时间变化与美国人口的变化密切相关，而造成保险损失超过1亿美元的灾难似乎既与天气条件的变化有关，也与地区人口的变化有关。这一评价显示，该行业的巨灾调整技术没有充分考虑到影响损害的各种人口和社会因素的变化；然而，结果表明，使用人口价值来使调整后的巨灾数据库正常化，以便能够对其时间变异性进行有意义的研究。
A 1950-1994 data set of major weather losses developed by the property insurance industry was examined to assess its potential utility in climate change research and use in assessing the relevance of recent extreme losses in the United States. A process for adjusting these historical storm losses to ever-changing factors including dollar values, amount of insurance coverage per area, and the sensitivity of society to damaging storms was developed by the industry. Analysis of the temporal frequency and losses of these adjusted weather catastrophes revealed differences according to the amount of loss. Temporal changes since 1975 in the catastrophes causing $35 to $100 million in loss were strongly related to changes in U.S. population, whereas catastrophes that created insured losses greater than $100 million appear related to both shifting weather conditions and to regional population changes. This evaluation revealed that the industry's catastrophe adjustment technique did not adequately allow for changes in various demographic and social factors affecting damage; however, results suggest use of population values for normalizing the adjusted catastrophe database to allow meaningful studies of their temporal variability.