Using agent-based simulation to assess disease prevention measures during pandemics*
Using agent-based simulation to assess disease prevention measures during pandemics*
复制标题
使用基于代理的模拟来评估大流行期间的疾病预防措施*
DOI：
10.1088/1674-1056/ac0ee8
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Tong Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tong Y
尽管人们对宏观流行病学模型越来越感兴趣，以应对COVID-19等大流行病带来的威胁，但对日常生活中疾病传播的评估却很少，特别是在超市等建筑物内，人们必须冒着接触疾病的风险购买必需品。在这里，我们提出了一个集成的顾客购物模拟器，包括购物者的运动和选择行为，分别使用基于力和离散选择模型。通过对基于力的模型的简单扩展，我们实施了超市目前采取的以下预防措施；社会距离和单向系统，以及不同的顾客习惯，根据平均个人疾病暴露和完成购物所需的时间（购物效率）进行评估。结果表明，保持社交距离是减少暴露的有效方法，但代价是购物效率的降低。我们发现，单向系统是最优的策略，以减少暴露，同时最大限度地减少对购物效率的影响。消费者也应该减少去超市的频率，但如果他们希望尽量减少接触，就应该多买一些。我们希望这项工作能够证明行人动力学模拟在大流行期间评估预防措施方面的潜力，特别是如果使用经验数据进行验证的话。
Despite the growing interest in macroscopic epidemiological models to deal with threats posed by pandemics such as COVID-19, little has been done regarding the assessment of disease spread in day-to-day life, especially within buildings such as supermarkets where people must obtain necessities at the risk of exposure to disease. Here, we propose an integrated customer shopping simulator including both shopper movement and choice behavior, using a force-based and discrete choice model, respectively. By a simple extension to the force-based model, we implement the following preventive measures currently taken by supermarkets; social distancing and one-way systems, and different customer habits, assessing them based on the average individual disease exposure and the time taken to complete shopping (shopping efficiency). Results show that maintaining social distance is an effective way to reduce exposure, but at the cost of shopping efficiency. We find that the one-way system is the optimal strategy for reducing exposure while minimizing the impact on shopping efficiency. Customers should also visit supermarkets less frequently, but buy more when they do, if they wish to minimize their exposure. We hope that this work demonstrates the potential of pedestrian dynamics simulations in assessing preventative measures during pandemics, particularly if it is validated using empirical data.