Trend Analysis with a New Global Record of Tropical Cyclone Intensity
Trend Analysis with a New Global Record of Tropical Cyclone Intensity
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DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-13-00262.1
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发表时间：
2013-12-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Knapp, Kenneth R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kossin, James P.;Olander, Timothy L.;Knapp, Kenneth R.
热带气旋的全球历史“最佳轨迹”记录在某些地区可以追溯到十九世纪中叶，但对这些记录的正式分析受到数据时间异质性的阻碍。当试图检测可能归因于气候变化的热带气旋指标的趋势时，这尤其成问题。在这里，作者将最先进的自动化算法应用于全球同质化的卫星数据记录，以创建 1982-2009 年期间热带气旋强度在时间上更加一致的记录，并利用该记录来调查最佳跟踪数据中发现的趋势的稳健性。特别是，计算了每个报告的风暴所达到的生命周期最大强度（LMI），并测试了LMI的频率分布在此期间的变化。为了解决印度洋周围地区因1998年卫星数据引入不连续性而导致的独特问题，应用了直接均质化程序，将1998年之后的数据降级到1998年之前的标准。研究发现，这一额外的均质化步骤可显着降低 LMI 趋势，但最强风暴的 LMI 的全球趋势仍然为正，幅度约为 +1 m s(-1) 十年(-1) 且 p 值 = 0.1。区域趋势（以毫秒（-1）十年（-1）为单位）变化范围从北太平洋西部的-2（p = 0.03）、南印度洋的+1.7（p 5 0.06）、南太平洋的+2.5（p = 0.09）到北大西洋的+8（p < 0.001）。
The historical global "best track" records of tropical cyclones extend back to the mid-nineteenth century in some regions, but formal analysis of these records is encumbered by temporal heterogeneities in the data. This is particularly problematic when attempting to detect trends in tropical cyclone metrics that may be attributable to climate change. Here the authors apply a state-of-the-art automated algorithm to a globally homogenized satellite data record to create a more temporally consistent record of tropical cyclone intensity within the period 1982-2009, and utilize this record to investigate the robustness of trends found in the best-track data. In particular, the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) achieved by each reported storm is calculated and the frequency distribution of LMI is tested for changes over this period.To address the unique issues in regions around the Indian Ocean, which result from a discontinuity introduced into the satellite data in 1998, a direct homogenization procedure is applied in which post-1998 data are degraded to pre-1998 standards. This additional homogenization step is found to measurably reduce LMI trends, but the global trends in the LMI of the strongest storms remain positive, with amplitudes of around +1 m s(-1) decade(-1) and p value = 0.1. Regional trends, in ms(-1) decade(-1), vary from -2 (p = 0.03) in the western North Pacific, +1.7 (p 5 0.06) in the south Indian Ocean, +2.5 (p = 0.09) in the South Pacific, to +8 (p < 0.001) in the North Atlantic.