Extreme hurricane rainfall affecting the Caribbean mitigated by the paris agreement goals
Extreme hurricane rainfall affecting the Caribbean mitigated by the paris agreement goals
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ab9794
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发表时间：
2020-10-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Emanuel, K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Vosper, E. L.;Mitchell, D. M.;Emanuel, K.
飓风是影响加勒比海等小岛国的最具影响力的极端天气事件之一，需要对社区和基础设施的恢复能力进行长期规划。通过将离线动态飓风模型与半度额外变暖预测和预计影响 (HAPPI) 项目的大量全球气候模型模拟的输出相结合，我们评估了在巴黎气候目标下飓风的影响可能如何变化。具体来说，我们专注于特定地区的飓风降雨，飓风的流动性和强度是当地影响的关键驱动因素。例如，多里安飓风（2019 年）在巴哈马群岛上空停留为 5 级风暴，造成了大范围的破坏。我们表明，自 1970 年以来，只有另一场飓风达到了这种强度：飓风米奇（1998 年）。由于世界变暖导致失速和降水量增加，我们的分析表明，与目前的气候预测相比，在《巴黎协定》1.5℃和2℃全球变暖目标情景下，加勒比地区出现极端飓风降雨的可能性更大。着眼于特定的飓风事件，我们发现，在《巴黎协定》目标下，与飓风玛丽亚同等程度的降雨事件发生的可能性是在气候变暖 2 摄氏度的情况下，在 1.5 摄氏度的目标下发生的可能性的一半左右。我们的研究结果强调需要对加勒比地区的飓风进行更多研究，该地区传统上受到的关注远远低于美国大陆，并且需要更全面的基础设施规划。
Hurricanes are among the most impactful extreme weather events affecting small island states such as the Caribbean and require long-term planning for community and infrastructure resilience. By coupling an offline dynamical hurricane model to the output of a large ensemble of global climate model simulations from the Half a degree of Additional warming Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we assess how the impacts of hurricanes may change under the Paris Climate goals. Specifically, we concentrate on hurricane rainfall over particular regions, with both the mobility and intensity of a hurricane being key drivers of local level impacts. For example, Hurricane Dorian (2019) caused widespread devastation when it stalled over Bahamas as a category 5 storm. We show that since 1970 only one other hurricane stalled at this strength: Hurricane Mitch (1998). Due to a combination of increased stalling and precipitation yield under a warmer world, our analysis indicates a greater likelihood of extreme hurricane rainfall occurring in the Caribbean under both Paris Agreement scenarios of 1.5 C and 2 C Global Warming goals, compared to present climate projections. Focusing on specific hurricane events, we show that a rainfall event equal in magnitude to Hurricane Maria is around half as likely to occur under the 1.5 C Paris Agreement goal compared to a 2 C warmer climate. Our results highlight the need for more research into hurricanes in the Caribbean, an area which has traditionally received far less attention than mainland USA and requires more comprehensive infrastructure planning.