Global Prevalence of Myopia and High Myopia and Temporal Trends from 2000 through 2050
Global Prevalence of Myopia and High Myopia and Temporal Trends from 2000 through 2050
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ophtha.2016.01.006
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发表时间：
2016-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
13.7
通讯作者：
Resnikoff, Serge
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Holden, Brien A.;Fricke, Timothy R.;Resnikoff, Serge
目的：近视是视力丧失的常见原因，未矫正的近视是全球范围内导致远距离视力障碍的主要原因。个别研究表明，不同地区和民族之间近视和高度近视的患病率存在差异，并且近视患病率的增加仍然存在不确定性。设计：系统回顾和荟萃分析。方法：我们使用1995年以来发表的数据，对2000年至2050年近视和高度近视的患病率进行了系统回顾和荟萃分析，并估计了时间趋势。在每个国家的城市或农村人口中，将主要数据收集到从0到>= 100的5岁年龄组中，标准化到0.50屈光度(D)或以下的近视定义和5.00 D或以下的高度近视定义，预计到2010年，然后在全球疾病负担（GBD）地区进行荟萃分析。任何缺乏GBD地区数据的城市或农村年龄组都从最相似的地区获取数据。发病率数据与城市化数据和联合国人口部（UNPD）的人口数据相结合，估计世界各国近视和高度近视的发病率。这些估计值与近视随时间变化的估计值相结合，这些估计值是通过对2000年至2050年每十年发表的证据进行回归分析得出的。结果：我们纳入了145项研究的数据，涵盖210万参与者。2000年，我们估计有1.406亿人近视（占世界人口的22.9%；95%置信区间[CI]， 9.32 - 3.32亿[15.2%-31.5%]），1.63亿人高度近视（占世界人口的2.7%;95% CI, 86- 3.87亿[1.4%-6.3%]）。我们预测到2050年将有4.758亿人患有近视（占世界人口的49.8%;3.62 - 6.06亿[95% CI， 43.4%-55.7%]）和9.38亿人患有高度近视（占世界人口的9.8%;4.79 - 21.04亿[95% CI， 5.7%-19.4%]）。结论：2000年至2050年的近视和高度近视估计表明，全球近视患病率显著增加，这对近10亿高度近视患者的规划服务，包括管理和预防近视相关的眼部并发症和视力丧失具有重要意义。(C) 2016年由美国眼科学会发布。
Purpose: Myopia is a common cause of vision loss, with uncorrected myopia the leading cause of distance vision impairment globally. Individual studies show variations in the prevalence of myopia and high myopia between regions and ethnic groups, and there continues to be uncertainty regarding increasing prevalence of myopia.Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis.Methods: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the prevalence of myopia and high myopia and estimated temporal trends from 2000 to 2050 using data published since 1995. The primary data were gathered into 5-year age groups from 0 to >= 100, in urban or rural populations in each country, standardized to definitions of myopia of 0.50 diopter (D) or less and of high myopia of 5.00 D or less, projected to the year 2010, then meta-analyzed within Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions. Any urban or rural age group that lacked data in a GBD region took data from the most similar region. The prevalence data were combined with urbanization data and population data from United Nations Population Department (UNPD) to estimate the prevalence of myopia and high myopia in each country of the world. These estimates were combined with myopia change estimates over time derived from regression analysis of published evidence to project to each decade from 2000 through 2050.Results: We included data from 145 studies covering 2.1 million participants. We estimated 1406 million people with myopia (22.9% of the world population; 95% confidence interval [CI], 932-1932 million [15.2%-31.5%]) and 163 million people with high myopia (2.7% of the world population; 95% CI, 86-387 million [1.4%-6.3%]) in 2000. We predict by 2050 there will be 4758 million people with myopia (49.8% of the world population; 3620-6056 million [95% CI, 43.4%-55.7%]) and 938 million people with high myopia (9.8% of the world population; 479-2104 million [95% CI, 5.7%-19.4%]).Conclusions: Myopia and high myopia estimates from 2000 to 2050 suggest significant increases in prevalences globally, with implications for planning services, including managing and preventing myopia-related ocular complications and vision loss among almost 1 billion people with high myopia. (C) 2016 by the American Academy of Ophthalmology.