A tipping point of spreading viruses: Estimating the risk of household contact transmission of COVID-19
A tipping point of spreading viruses: Estimating the risk of household contact transmission of COVID-19
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DOI：
10.3389/fphy.2022.1044049
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发表时间：
2023-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
S. Kurahashi;Taisei Mukai;Y. Sekine;Keisuke Nakajima;K. Otake;Junichi Sugiyama;Takeshi Takizawa;Y. Kakizawa
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文献类型：
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作者：
S. Kurahashi;Taisei Mukai;Y. Sekine;Keisuke Nakajima;K. Otake;Junichi Sugiyama;Takeshi Takizawa;Y. Kakizawa
据报道，COVID-19感染由飞沫和接触感染引起。本文提出了一个模型，可视化的风险接触感染的家庭成员时，病毒传播到各种物品在家里。从基于问卷的居家行为调查中提取居家后的行为数据，设计基于Agent的模型。建立了联络行为数据表，包括房间间转移概率表、条件概率表和联络概率表。还通过在病毒实验室中测量与液滴接触后的病毒传播率来创建材料转移效率表。在实验中，根据所获得的数据创建的合成代理在回家后概率性地执行移动和接触行为，并再现外出时附着在手或物品上的病毒传播到家中物体的状态。接下来，我们研究第二个家庭成员回家的风险。因此，在回家后30分钟左右，在入口和厨房周围广泛确认了病毒附着接触者，这表明早期洗手行为的有效性。实验表明，即使第一个回家的人在入口处消毒了手，病毒仍然会留在入口的一部分，而病毒会被第二个回家的人在房间内传播。
COVID-19 infection has been reported to be caused by droplet and contact infection. This paper proposes a model that visualizes the risk of contact infection to family members when viruses spread to various items at home. Behavior data after returning home are extracted from a questionnaire-based survey of home behavior to design the agent-based model. The data tables of contact behavior are created, including the room-to-room transfer probability table, the conditional probability table, and the contact probability table. The material transfer efficiency table is also created by measuring the virus transmission rate after contact with droplets in a virus experiment laboratory. In the experiment, the synthetic agent created from the acquired data probabilistically performs movement and contact behavior after returning home and reproduces the state in which the virus attached to the hand or belongings, when going out, propagates to objects at home. Next, we examine the risk of a second family member returning home. As a result, virus-attached contacts within around 30 minutes after returning home are widely confirmed around the entrance and kitchen, suggesting the effectiveness of early hand-washing behavior. And the experiment shows that even if the first person returning home disinfects their hands inside the entrance, the virus remains in a part of the entrance, and the virus is spread inside the room by the second person returning home.