Analysis of Artisanal and Small-Scale Gold Mining in Peru under Climate Impacts Using System Dynamics Modeling
Analysis of Artisanal and Small-Scale Gold Mining in Peru under Climate Impacts Using System Dynamics Modeling
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DOI：
10.3390/su14127390
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发表时间：
2022-06
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Fatih Aranoglu;Tulay Flamand;S. Duzgun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Fatih Aranoglu;Tulay Flamand;S. Duzgun
在本文中，我们提出了一个系统动力学（SD）模型来研究一个非正式的手工和小规模的黄金开采（ASGM）的供应链，在亚马逊雨林地区，马德雷德迪奥斯（MdD），秘鲁的非法黄金供应链的相互作用的动态。为了检查气候影响下的系统并验证模型，我们在洪水情景下运行它，这是导致采矿活动中断的主要气候影响之一。我们的研究结果表明，非正规矿山的动态受到非法汞供应，燃料供应和工人可用性的高度影响。此外，洪水情景下的模型表明，任何可能直接影响燃料和汞供应的外部变量都将导致非正规和非法黄金生产中断。
In this paper, we propose a system dynamics (SD) model to examine the dynamics of an informal artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) supply chain that has interactions with the illegal gold supply chain in the Amazon rainforest region, Madre de Dios (MdD), Peru. In order to examine the system under climate impacts and validate the model, we run it under a flood scenario, which is one of the main climate impacts that causes disruption in mining activities. Our findings suggest that the dynamics of informal mines are highly affected by the illegal mercury supply, fuel supply, and availability of workers. In addition, the model under the flood scenario suggests that any external variable that could directly affect fuel and mercury supply would result in a disruption of informal and illegal gold production.