Heat mortality in Berlin – Spatial variability at the neighborhood scale
Heat mortality in Berlin – Spatial variability at the neighborhood scale
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DOI：
10.1016/j.uclim.2014.10.008
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发表时间：
2014-12
期刊：
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
C. Schuster;K. Burkart;T. Lakes
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Schuster;K. Burkart;T. Lakes
热应激日益影响地理纬度较高的城市人口。由于城市化、人口老龄化和全球变暖，相关的不利健康影响预计将增加。虽然许多研究都研究了高温和死亡率之间的关系，但只有少数研究考察了它们之间的城市内部空间变异性。这项缺失的研究在中纬度北部城市尤为明显，那里的人们还没有为高温压力做好准备。因此，这项研究的目的是调查德国首都柏林在邻里尺度(397个规划区)的空间变异性中与高温相关的超额死亡率。我们通过计算有和没有严重热浪的月份的相对热死亡风险比来分析年龄标化死亡率。空间关联的局部指标被用来定位空间集群。研究结果突出了与高温相关的超额死亡率在城市内部的变异性，并显示了柏林规划区的集群性。死亡率数据的时间聚集使邻里尺度的分析成为可能。由此产生的与高温相关的超额死亡率地图使城市决策者能够确定应急和适应规划的热点，并作为进一步调查个人层面上的热应激风险的基础。
Heat stress increasingly affects urban populations in higher geographical latitudes. Related adverse health effects are expected to increase due to urbanization, population aging, and global warming. While many studies have examined the relationship between heat and mortality, only a few have examined the intra-urban spatial variability between them. This missing research is particularly evident for northern mid-latitude cities, where populations are not prepared for heat stress. The aim of this study is therefore to investigate heat-related excess mortality in its spatial variability at the neighborhood scale (397 planning areas) for Berlin, the capital of Germany. We analyzed age-standardized mortality rates by calculating the relative heat mortality risk ratio for months with and without severe heat waves. Local indicators of spatial association were used to locate spatial clusters. The results highlighted the intra-urban variability of heat-related excess mortality, and demonstrated clustering for the planning areas of Berlin. Temporal aggregation of mortality data enabled a neighborhood-scale analysis. Resulting heat-related excess mortality maps allow urban decision makers to identify hot spots for emergency and adaptation planning, and serve as a basis for further investigations of heat stress risk on an individual level.