A Prototype Operational Earthquake Loss Model for California Based on UCERF3-ETAS - A First Look at Valuation
A Prototype Operational Earthquake Loss Model for California Based on UCERF3-ETAS - A First Look at Valuation
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DOI：
10.1193/011817eqs017m
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发表时间：
2017-11-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Milner, Kevin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Field, Edward;Porter, Keith;Milner, Kevin
本文提出了一个基于UCERF3-ETAS的操作损失模型原型，UCERF3-ETAS是第三个具有流行型余震序列（ETAS）分量的统一加利福尼亚地震破裂预报。因此，UCERF3-ETAS代表了第一个放松断层分割假设的地震预测，并包括多断层破裂，弹性反弹和时空聚类，所有这些对于生成现实和有用的余震统计数据似乎都很重要。然而，UCERF3-ETAS只是该系统的近似值，因此有用性会有所不同，需要在每个应用的背景下确定潜在价值。我们以全州范围内的损失估计来考察这个问题，举例说明在各种情景地震之后触发的事件如何将风险提高几个数量级。两个重要的考虑因素是概率收益，相对于在没有主要冲击的情况下损失的可能性，以及收益随时间的快速衰减。重大的不确定性和模型局限性仍然存在，因此我们希望本文将启发对其他风险指标的类似分析，以帮助确定UCERF3-ETAS的运作是否值得所需的大量资源。
We present a prototype operational loss model based on UCERF3-ETAS, which is the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast with an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) component. As such, UCERF3-ETAS represents the first earthquake forecast to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multi-fault ruptures, elastic-rebound, and spatiotemporal clustering, all of which seem important for generating realistic and useful aftershock statistics. UCERF3-ETAS is nevertheless an approximation of the system, however, so usefulness will vary and potential value needs to be ascertained in the context of each application. We examine this question with respect to state-wide loss estimates, exemplifying how risk can be elevated by orders of magnitude due to triggered events following various scenario earthquakes. Two important considerations are the probability gains, relative to loss likelihoods in the absence of main shocks, and the rapid decay of gains with time. Significant uncertainties and model limitations remain, so we hope this paper will inspire similar analyses with respect to other risk metrics to help ascertain whether operationalization of UCERF3-ETAS would be worth the considerable resources required.