Identifying the Dominant Drivers of Hydrological Change in the Contiguous United States
Identifying the Dominant Drivers of Hydrological Change in the Contiguous United States
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DOI：
10.1029/2021wr029738
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发表时间：
2021-05
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Zhiying Li;S. Quiring
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zhiying Li;S. Quiring
了解水文变化的主要驱动因素对于水资源管理至关重要。美国的流域正在经历不同类型的变化（例如，湿的变得更湿，干的变得更干）;然而，很少有研究分析造成这些变化的驱动因素，以及主要驱动因素如何随着时间的推移以及作为气候/水状况和土地覆盖的函数而变化。本研究使用时变Budyko框架来量化降水、潜在蒸散和其他因素（例如，气候季节性，农业排水和城市化），在889个流域在毗邻的美国从1950年到2009年。结果表明，流域变得越来越潮湿，主要是由于降水量增加。然而，干旱气候中的流域变得越来越干燥主要是由于其他因素，而潮湿气候中的流域变得越来越干燥主要是由于降水。导致统计上显著的径流趋势的驱动因素取决于主要的土地利用类型。从时间上看，其他因素的影响在中西部地区80年代以后更加明显。美国径流的主要驱动力是随时间变化的，而不是恒定的。这与径流的非平稳模式一致。随时间变化的驱动因素提供了越来越重要的过程信息，需要在水资源管理中给予最多关注。
Understanding the dominant drivers of hydrological change is essential for water resources management. Watersheds in the United States are experiencing different types of changes (e.g., wet gets wetter and dry gets drier); however, few studies have analyzed what drivers are responsible for these changes, and how the dominant drivers vary over time and as a function of the climate/water regime and land cover. This study uses a time‐varying Budyko framework to quantify the relative importance of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and other factors (e.g., climate seasonality, agricultural drainage, and urbanization) in 889 watersheds in the contiguous United States from 1950 to 2009. Results show that watersheds that are getting wetter are primarily due to increases in precipitation. However, watersheds in dry climates that are getting drier are primarily due to other factors, while watersheds in wet climates that are getting drier are primarily due to precipitation. The drivers causing statistically significant streamflow trends vary depending on dominant land‐use types. Temporally, the increasing effects of other factors are more pronounced after the 1980s in the Midwest. The dominant drivers of streamflow in the United States are time‐varying instead of constant. This is consistent with non‐stationary patterns of streamflow. The time‐varying drivers provide information on the processes that are increasingly important and require the most attention in water resources management.