Water Security Assessment of China’s One Belt and One Road Region
Water Security Assessment of China’s One Belt and One Road Region
复制标题
中国“一带一路”地区水安全评估
作者：
Zhaofang Zhang;Weijun He;Min An;Dagmawi Mulugeta Degefu;Liang Yuan;Juqin Shen;Zaiyi Liao;Xia Wu
社会经济和环境系统的可持续发展高度依赖于水资本和水资源利用效率。如今，由于各种因素的综合作用，世界上很大一部分地区正面临水安全问题。因此，社会经济和环境系统受到威胁。中国目前也遇到了问题。水安全评价有助于确定水资源优化利用的关键决定因素，为此提出了驱动力-压力-承载力-状态-影响-响应（DPSCIR）水安全评价框架。与以往的方法不同，所提出的框架纳入了环境的承载能力，因此，产生的评估结果是更现实的。以“一带一路”（B&R）地区为例，将该框架与熵值法相结合，对我国“一带一路”地区的水安全状况进行了评价。此外，利用灰色预测模型对2017 - 2022年该地区各省市的水安全水平进行了模拟。结果表明，响应子系统、状态子系统、压力子系统和承载力子系统对区域水安全有重要影响。根据评估，该地区的水安全从2011年到2016年有所改善。研究结果表明，研究区三个次区域的水资源安全状况呈现出以下趋势：21世纪海上丝绸之路（一路）区域的水资源安全状况优于丝绸之路经济带（一带）区域和B&R战略支撑与战略门户（SSPG）区域。从评价结果可以看出，仅仅关注响应子系统并不能完全解决B&R区域内的水安全问题。因此，为了确保该区域和国家的可持续水安全，政府需要设计考虑到所有子系统的水资源管理机制。
The sustainable development of socioeconomic and environmental systems are highly dependent on water capital and water utilization efficiency. Nowadays, a significant portion of the world is facing water security issues due to a combination of various factors. As a result, socioeconomic and environmental systems are threatened. China is also currently experiencing problems. Water security assessment helps to identify key determining factors for optimal water utilization, so the authors present the Driving Forces-Pressures-Carrying Capacity-State-Impacts-Responses (DPSCIR) water security assessment framework. Unlike previous methods, the proposed framework incorporates the carrying capacity of the environment, and as a result, yields assessment results that are more realistic. As a case study, the proposed framework coupled with the entropy method is applied to assess the water security status of the One Belt and One Road (B&R) region in China. In addition, the water security level of the provinces and municipalities in this region are simulated for the time period from 2017 to 2022 using the Grey Prediction Model. The results show that Responses, State, Pressures, and Carrying Capacity Subsystems greatly influence water security of the region. According to the assessment, water security of the area improved from 2011 to 2016. The results portray the following trend among the three subregions of the study area, the water security of the 21st Maritime Silk Road (One Road) area is better than Silk Road Economic Belt (One Belt) and the Strategy Support and Pivotal Gateway (SSPG) of B&R areas. Generally, from the evaluation results it can be concluded that only focusing on the subsystem of Responses cannot entirely address the water security problems within the B&R area. Therefore, to ensure sustainable water security in the region and in the country, the government needs to design water resource management mechanisms that take all the subsystems into account.
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影响因子：
7.1
作者：
O. Schinas;A. G. V. Westarp
通讯作者：
O. Schinas;A. G. V. Westarp
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
China Environmental Science
影响因子：
--
作者：
Yang Jin
通讯作者：
Yang Jin
影响因子：
5.7
作者：
Fatemeh Meskini-Vishkaee;N. Davatgar
通讯作者：
Fatemeh Meskini-Vishkaee;N. Davatgar
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2016-02
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
Simeon Djankov;Sean Miner
通讯作者：
Simeon Djankov;Sean Miner
影响因子：
--
作者：
SHANNON, CE
通讯作者：
SHANNON, CE