Predicting present and future intra-specific genetic structure through niche hindcasting across 24 millennia
Predicting present and future intra-specific genetic structure through niche hindcasting across 24 millennia
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01779.x
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发表时间：
2012-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Alvarez, Nadir
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Espindola, Anahi;Pellissier, Loic;Alvarez, Nadir
古气候重建结合物种分布模型和现有空间遗传结构的识别，有可能为了解塑造种内遗传变异分布的人口统计学事件提供见解。本研究以欧花莲（Trollius europaeus）为例，结合(1)扩增片段长度多态性（amplification Fragment Length Polymorphisms）、(2)1000年逐步后推的物种分布序列和(3)过去24000年的时间扩散模型，追踪最可能符合物种当前遗传结构的空间动态。我们表明，在欧洲，全球花包括四个基因库，这些基因库从末次冰川极大期之前的干旱时期开始，在追踪适合其气候生态位的条件时分散。在这四个基因库中，预计有两个在不久的将来会经历剧烈的范围收缩。我们的跨学科方法适用于几乎任何分类单元，是推断气候变化如何影响物种遗传结构的一个进步。
Ecology Letters (2012) 15: 649657 Abstract Paleoclimatic reconstructions coupled with species distribution models and identification of extant spatial genetic structure have the potential to provide insights into the demographic events that shape the distribution of intra-specific genetic variation across time. Using the globeflower Trollius europaeus as a case-study, we combined (1) Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms, (2) suites of 1000-years stepwise hindcasted species distributions and (3) a model of diffusion through time over the last 24,000 years, to trace the spatial dynamics that most likely fits the species current genetic structure. We show that the globeflower comprises four gene pools in Europe which, from the dry period preceding the Last Glacial Maximum, dispersed while tracking the conditions fitting its climatic niche. Among these four gene pools, two are predicted to experience drastic range retraction in the near future. Our interdisciplinary approach, applicable to virtually any taxon, is an advance in inferring how climate change impacts species genetic structures.