A Statistical Analysis of the Water Levels at Lake Neusiedl
A Statistical Analysis of the Water Levels at Lake Neusiedl
复制标题
新锡德尔湖水位统计分析
DOI：
10.17713/ajs.v37i2.296
复制
发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
0.6
通讯作者：
J. Ledolter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Ledolter
最近纽西德尔湖的低水位引起了人们对湖泊未来的关注，并引发了人们对气象变量如何影响水位的兴趣。过去50年的数据被用来研究降雨和温度对水位周期性变化的影响。利用线性和非线性回归模型描述了降雨和温度对水位的影响，并对三种情景下的水位变化进行了预测。对于2022年的平均气象条件，2022年的水位可能不会因为2021年的干旱秋季而恢复，但如果2021年结束时是潮湿的，则会大幅恢复。
The recent low water levels of Lake Neusiedl have raised concern about the lake's future and have sparked interest on how meteorological variables impact the water level. Data from the last 50 years are used to study the impact of rain and temperature on the cyclical changes of the water levels. Linear and nonlinear regression models are used to describe how rainfall and temperature change the water level, and to assess the future progression of the water level under three scenarios. For average 2022 meteorological conditions the water levels in 2022 may not recover for a dry 2021 autumn, but will recover substantially for a wet ending to the year 2021.