Validation and calibration of a model used to reconstruct historical exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons for use in epidemiologic studies.
Validation and calibration of a model used to reconstruct historical exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons for use in epidemiologic studies.
复制标题
用于重建历史暴露于多环芳烃的模型的验证和校准，用于流行病学研究。
DOI：
10.1289/ehp.8659
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发表时间：
2006-07
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Gammon, Marilie D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Beyea, Jan;Hatch, Maureen;Stellman, Steven D;Santella, Regina M;Teitelbaum, Susan L;Prokopczyk, Bogdan;Camann, David;Gammon, Marilie D
我们之前开发了一个历史重建模型，用于估计自 1960 年以来交通中空气中多环芳烃 (PAH) 的暴露情况，用于乳腺癌风险的病例对照研究。在这里，我们报告了四项练习的结果，以验证和校准模型。土壤和地毯灰尘中苯并[a]芘 (BaP) 浓度的模型预测根据采访时在受试者家中收集的测量值进行了测试。此外，将 BaP 的空气摄入量预测与血液 PAH-DNA 加合物进行了比较。这些相同的土壤、地毯和血液测量结果用于模型优化。在对该模型的气象扩散部分进行的单独测试中，对交通中每小时一氧化碳浓度的预测与美国环境保护局监测站收集的数据进行了比较。土壤、PAH-DNA 加合物和一氧化碳浓度的数据均与模型预测一致。地毯灰尘数据不一致，表明可能与从室外或未建模的烹饪源追踪到的含 PAH 污染存在空间混淆。我们发现 BaP 与土壤和灰尘数据中的其他多环芳烃成正比，因此使用 BaP 历史数据作为其他多环芳烃的替代是合理的。道路交叉口占总排放量和平均暴露量的 40-80%，这表明简单的暴露标记（例如交通量和/或到最近道路的距离）需要扩展以包括到最近交叉口的距离。
We previously developed a historical reconstruction model to estimate exposure to airborne polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from traffic back to 1960 for use in case–control studies of breast cancer risk. Here we report the results of four exercises to validate and calibrate the model. Model predictions of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) concentration in soil and carpet dust were tested against measurements collected at subjects’ homes at interview. In addition, predictions of air intake of BaP were compared with blood PAH–DNA adducts. These same soil, carpet, and blood measurements were used for model optimization. In a separate test of the meteorological dispersion part of the model, predictions of hourly concentrations of carbon monoxide from traffic were compared with data collected at a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency monitoring station. The data for soil, PAH–DNA adducts, and carbon monoxide concentrations were all consistent with model predictions. The carpet dust data were inconsistent, suggesting possible spatial confounding with PAH-containing contamination tracked in from outdoors or unmodeled cooking sources. BaP was found proportional to other PAHs in our soil and dust data, making it reasonable to use BaP historical data as a surrogate for other PAHs. Road intersections contributed 40–80% of both total emissions and average exposures, suggesting that the repertoire of simple markers of exposure, such as traffic counts and/or distance to nearest road, needs to be expanded to include distance to nearest intersection.