Economic impact of a potential free trade agreement (FTA) between the European Union and South Korea
Economic impact of a potential free trade agreement (FTA) between the European Union and South Korea
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欧盟与韩国之间潜在的自由贸易协定 (FTA) 的经济影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2007
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Martin H. Thelle
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. François;Hanna C. Norberg;Martin H. Thelle
我们分析了欧盟(EU25)和韩国之间贸易自由化的潜在措施的影响。使用包含GTAP数据库的世界贸易可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型，我们评估了欧盟-韩国自由贸易协定(FTA)的两种情景，并将其与全面自由贸易协定所赋予的最大潜力进行了比较。我们表明，现实的FTA情景(称为OPartial 10)为两个经济体带来了完全FTA中潜力的26%的总收益。如果服务贸易自由化进一步推进，就像我们更雄心勃勃的情景(称为OPartial 2O)一样，欧盟和韩国之间全面自由贸易协定的总收益将增加到总潜力的46%。我们的结果表明，两个经济体都将从所有分析的贸易自由化水平中获得经济收益，但收益分配不均。在所有情况下，韩国将从欧盟-韩国自贸协定中获得总收益的三分之二，主要是因为韩国经济最初比欧盟经济更容易受到国际竞争的保护，因此将从竞争加剧中受益更多。
We analyze the effects of potential measures to liberalize trade between the European Union (EU25) and South Korea. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of world trade that incorporates the GTAP database, we evaluate two scenarios for an EU-Korea free trade agreement (FTA) and compare it to the maximum potential given by a full free trade agreement. We show that a realistic FTA scenario (called OPartial 1O) yields a total gain for the two economies of 26 percent of the potential in a full FTA. If liberalization of trade in services is taken a step further, as in our more ambitious scenario (called OPartial 2O), total gains increase to 46 percent of the total potential from a full FTA between EU and Korea. Our results show that both economies stand to gain economically from all analyzed levels of trade liberalization, but the gains are unevenly distributed. Korea will obtain two-thirds of the total gains from an EU-Korea FTA in all scenarios, basically because the Korean economy initially is more protected from international competition than the EU economy, and therefore will benefit more from increased competition.