A step-response simple climate model to reconstruct and interpret AOGCM projections
A step-response simple climate model to reconstruct and interpret AOGCM projections
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DOI：
10.1029/2010gl045208
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发表时间：
2011-01-12
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Lowe, Jason A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Good, Peter;Gregory, Jonathan M.;Lowe, Jason A.
我们提出了一个新的简单气候模式（SCM）框架，用于快速气候预估和解释全球气候模式（GCM）预估。该SCM源自CO2阶跃GCM实验（第五气候模式比较项目CMIP5的核心集成），类似于线性脉冲响应理论。因此，其结果可追溯到GCM物理学，并与分析GCM的常用方法密切相关。它的配方不需要调整，并允许明确的验证。在讨论了理论性质之后，我们证明了该SCM可以很好地工作，使用HadCM3 GCM计算一系列强迫情景下的全球温度、降水、热吸收和向外辐射。验证表明，表面温度、辐射响应和降水与脉冲响应线性存在有趣的偏差。这些非线性不仅出现在气候反馈中（如前所述），也出现在对强迫变化的快速调整中。在温度和降水偏离脉冲响应线性的机制之间发现了一些共性。我们的结果表明，为了支持CMIP5中的4xCO(2)实验，从其他gcm中额外集成2xCO(2)可能非常有价值。我们还展示了我们的框架如何能够帮助理解与时间相关的情景预测，并建议该方法可以作为GCM理解和SCM制定一起发展的过程的一部分。引用本文：Good， P.， J. M. Gregory和J. A. Lowe(2011)，用于重建和解释AOGCM预估的阶跃响应简单气候模型，《地球物理》。卷。， 38, L01703, doi:10.1029/2010GL045208。
We propose a new simple climate modelling (SCM) framework for making fast climate projections and for interpreting global climate model (GCM) projections. This SCM is derived from CO2 step GCM experiments (a core integration in the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project CMIP5), and is similar to linear impulse-response theory. Its results are therefore traceable to GCM physics and closely related to a commonly-used method of analysing GCMs. Its formulation needs no tuning and permits clear validation. After discussing theoretical properties, we show that this SCM can work well, using the HadCM3 GCM for global temperature, precipitation, heat uptake and outgoing radiation under a range of forcing scenarios. The validation reveals interesting deviations from impulse-response linearity in surface temperature, radiative response and precipitation. These non-linearities emerge not just in climate feedback (as previously reported), but also in the rapid adjustment to forcing change. Some commonality is found between mechanisms by which temperature and precipitation depart from impulse-response linearity. Our results suggest that in support of the 4xCO(2) experiments within CMIP5, additional 2xCO(2) integrations from other GCMs could be very valuable. We also show how our framework can help understand time-dependent scenario projections, and suggest that this approach could be used as part of a process where GCM understanding and SCM formulation develop together. Citation: Good, P., J. M. Gregory, and J. A. Lowe (2011), A step-response simple climate model to reconstruct and interpret AOGCM projections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L01703, doi:10.1029/2010GL045208.