A simulation model of African Anopheles ecology and population dynamics for the analysis of malaria transmission -: art. no. 29
A simulation model of African Anopheles ecology and population dynamics for the analysis of malaria transmission -: art. no. 29
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DOI：
10.1186/1475-2875-3-29
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发表时间：
2004-07-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
McKenzie, FE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Depinay, JMO;Mbogo, CM;McKenzie, FE
背景：疟疾是人类最古老和最致命的传染病之一。在过去的世纪中，已经开发了许多疟疾的数学模型，并将其应用于潜在的干预措施。然而，疟疾仍然不受控制，并在许多地区增加，作为载体和寄生虫的抗药性杀虫剂和drugs.Methods：本研究提出了一个模拟模型的非洲疟疾载体。这种基于个体的模型结合了按蚊种群动态及其与环境关系的机制的现有知识。它的主要优势之一是，它是基于生物和环境variables.Results：该模型使人们有可能构建现有的知识，组装在一个全面的文献综述，并指出了重要方面的基本按蚊生物学知识是缺乏的。一个模拟显示了几种与实地观察相似的模式，并使人们有可能对这些模式进行不同的分析和假设;还进行了温度、湿度、捕食的敏感性分析和营养竞争的初步调查。虽然基于一些数学公式和参数，但这一新工具的开发是为了尽可能明确，使用透明，接近现实，易于现场工作人员直接使用。它可以更好地了解按蚊种群动态的机制，也可以更好地了解特定的当地地理环境中的动态。它指出了许多重要的新调查领域，这些领域对有效、高效和可持续的干预措施至关重要。
Background: Malaria is one of the oldest and deadliest infectious diseases in humans. Many mathematical models of malaria have been developed during the past century, and applied to potential interventions. However, malaria remains uncontrolled and is increasing in many areas, as are vector and parasite resistance to insecticides and drugs.Methods: This study presents a simulation model of African malaria vectors. This individual-based model incorporates current knowledge of the mechanisms underlying Anopheles population dynamics and their relations to the environment. One of its main strengths is that it is based on both biological and environmental variables.Results: The model made it possible to structure existing knowledge, assembled in a comprehensive review of the literature, and also pointed out important aspects of basic Anopheles biology about which knowledge is lacking. One simulation showed several patterns similar to those seen in the field, and made it possible to examine different analyses and hypotheses for these patterns; sensitivity analyses on temperature, moisture, predation and preliminary investigations of nutrient competition were also conducted.Conclusions: Although based on some mathematical formulae and parameters, this new tool has been developed in order to be as explicit as possible, transparent in use, close to reality and amenable to direct use by field workers. It allows a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying Anopheles population dynamics in general and also a better understanding of the dynamics in specific local geographic environments. It points out many important areas for new investigations that will be critical to effective, efficient, sustainable interventions.