Coronavirus Disease 2019 Epidemic Doubling Time in the United States Before and During Stay-at-Home Restrictions
Coronavirus Disease 2019 Epidemic Doubling Time in the United States Before and During Stay-at-Home Restrictions
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DOI：
10.1093/infdis/jiaa491
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发表时间：
2020-11-15
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
Chan, Philip A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lurie, Mark N.;Silva, Joe;Chan, Philip A.
背景。自 2020 年 1 月以来，2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 在美国迅速传播。我们估计了平均流行病倍增时间，这是全国、各州以及与居家订单相关的流行病增长的重要衡量标准。结果。在采取广泛缓解措施之前，美国的疫情倍增时间为 2.68 天（95% 置信区间 [CI]，2.30-3.24 天），在缓解阶段增加了 460%，达到 15 天（12.89-17.94 天）。在没有居家令的州中，倍增时间的中位数增长了 60%（95% CI，9.2-223.3），而有居家令的州则为 269%（95% CI，277.0-394.0）。结论。全州范围内的缓解策略与流行病倍增时间的增加密切相关。
Background. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly in the United States since January 2020.Methods. We estimated mean epidemic doubling time, an important measure of epidemic growth, nationally, by state, and in association with stay-at-home orders.Results. The epidemic doubling time in the United States was 2.68 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.30-3.24 days) before widespread mitigation efforts, increasing by 460% to 15 days (12.89-17.94 days) during the mitigation phase. Among states without stay-at-home orders, the median increase in doubling time was 60% (95% CI, 9.2-223.3), compared with 269% (95% CI, 277.0-394.0) for states with stay-at-home orders.Conclusions. Statewide mitigation strategies were strongly associated with increased epidemic doubling time.