Quantifying the role of vehicle size, powertrain technology, activity and consumer behaviour on new UK passenger vehicle fleet energy use and emissions under different policy objectives
Quantifying the role of vehicle size, powertrain technology, activity and consumer behaviour on new UK passenger vehicle fleet energy use and emissions under different policy objectives
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.07.111
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发表时间：
2016-10
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
J. Bishop;N. Martin;A. Boies
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Bishop;N. Martin;A. Boies
本文量化了政策目标对最佳新乘用车组成的影响。目标是减少个人的绝对能源使用和相关的二氧化碳、nox和PM2.5的排放。这项工作结合了由上而下、以多样性为主导的车队组成方法，以及由下而上的九个车型的23种动力总成型号模型。改变年行驶距离只会对车队构成产生最小的影响，因为减少驾驶减少了转向小型车辆或更高效动力系统的需求。相反，管理活动导致了车队的“再汽化”，从而最大限度地减少了nox和PM2.5的排放。改变年行驶距离和增加接受更长的回报时间的意愿的混合方法将车辆活动管理与消费者对新型车辆动力系统的需求结合起来。将这些行为变化结合起来，而不收取任何费用，使得混合方法能够最大限度地减少能源使用和二氧化碳排放。引入补贴使低排放汽车更容易负担得起，并代表了供应方对新型动力系统的推动。在没有任何消费者行为改变的情况下，能源使用和相关排放的最大减少发生了，但需要对高排放车辆收取高额费用（每克二氧化碳/公里79-99英镑），并使用最专业的车队来实现。然而，这样的车队可能不会给消费者提供足够的选择来吸引他们。在外部激励和消费者行为调整的双重作用下，实现了车辆尺寸和动力系统类型最优多样性的车队。这项工作有许多潜在的受众：政府和政策制定者可以使用该框架来了解如何在承诺减少排放的同时适应车辆使用的增长；原始设备制造商可以利用自下而上的车辆动力系统输入，了解在消费者行为变化、外部激励和政策目标的影响下，他们的技术在车队中可以发挥的作用。
This paper quantifies the impacts of policy objectives on the composition of an optimum new passenger vehicle fleet. The objectives are to reduce individually absolute energy use and associated emissions of CO2, NOxand PM2.5. This work combines a top down, diversity-led approach to fleet composition with bottom-up models of 23 powertrain variants across nine vehicle segments. Changing the annual distance travelled only led to the smallest change in fleet composition because driving less mitigated the need to shift to smaller vehicles or more efficient powertrains. Instead, managing activity led to a ‘re-petrolisation’ of the fleet which yielded the largest reductions in emissions of NOxand PM2.5. The hybrid approach of changing annual distance travelled and increasing willingness to accept longer payback times incorporates management of vehicle activity with consumers’ demand for novel vehicle powertrains. Combining these changes in behaviour, without feebates, allowed the hybrid approach to return the largest reductions in energy use and CO2emissions. Introducing feebates makes low-emitting vehicles more affordable and represents a supply side push for novel powertrains. The largest reductions in energy use and associated emissions occurred without any consumer behaviour change, but required large fees (£79–99 per g CO2/km) on high-emitting vehicles and were achieved using the most specialised fleets. However, such fleets may not present consumers with sufficient choice to be attractive. The fleet with best diversity by vehicle size and powertrain type was achieved with both the external incentive of the feebate and consumers modifying their activity. This work has a number of potential audiences: governments and policy makers may use the framework to understand how to accommodate the growth in vehicle use with pledged reductions in emissions; and original equipment manufacturers may take advantage of the bottom-up, vehicle powertrain inputs to understand the role their technology can play in a fleet under the influence of consumer behaviour change, external incentives and policy objectives.