Dynamics of coupled human-landscape systems
Dynamics of coupled human-landscape systems
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DOI：
10.1016/j.geomorph.2007.04.020
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发表时间：
2007-11
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
B. Werner;D. McNamara
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
B. Werner;D. McNamara
初步动态分析的景观和人类的层次复杂系统表明，两者之间的强耦合，蔓延成为区域或全球普遍应集中在多年到十年的时间尺度。在这些尺度上，景观动态主要是由河流，海洋，大气过程介导的水，沉积物和生物路由，人类动态主要是由简化，利润最大化的市场力量和政治行动的基础上预测的经济效果。同样在这些尺度上，景观通过自然灾害模式和海平面上升等趋势影响人类;人类通过经济活动和旨在减轻自然灾害和长期趋势的变化影响景观。基于这一分析，人地耦合系统可以建模使用异构代理采用预测模型来确定行动，以代表经济和政治系统的非线性行为和基于规则的路由算法来代表景观过程。新奥尔良发展的细胞模型说明了这种方法，河流和飓风风暴潮的路由算法确定洪水范围，五个市场（家庭、劳务、酒店、旅游和港口服务）连接七类经济主体（置业人士/劳工、房屋发展商、酒店业主/雇主、酒店发展商、游客、港口服务发展商及港口服务业主/雇主），由政治代理人建造堤坝或河道泄洪道，以及在由洪水沃茨的通道或深度决定的单元内破坏住宅、旅馆或港口服务。该模型再现了新奥尔良经济发展和堤坝建设的历史方面，并以大灾害为代价过滤频繁的小规模洪水。
A preliminary dynamical analysis of landscapes and humans as hierarchical complex systems suggests that strong coupling between the two that spreads to become regionally or globally pervasive should be focused at multi-year to decadal time scales. At these scales, landscape dynamics is dominated by water, sediment and biological routing mediated by fluvial, oceanic, atmospheric processes and human dynamics is dominated by simplifying, profit-maximizing market forces and political action based on projection of economic effect. Also at these scales, landscapes impact humans through patterns of natural disasters and trends such as sea level rise; humans impact landscapes by the effect of economic activity and changes meant to mitigate natural disasters and longer term trends. Based on this analysis, human-landscape coupled systems can be modeled using heterogeneous agents employing prediction models to determine actions to represent the nonlinear behavior of economic and political systems and rule-based routing algorithms to represent landscape processes. A cellular model for the development of New Orleans illustrates this approach, with routing algorithms for river and hurricane-storm surge determining flood extent, five markets (home, labor, hotel, tourism and port services) connecting seven types of economic agents (home buyers/laborers, home developers, hotel owners/ employers, hotel developers, tourists, port services developer and port services owners/employers), building of levees or a river spillway by political agents and damage to homes, hotels or port services within cells determined by the passage or depth of flood waters. The model reproduces historical aspects of New Orleans economic development and levee construction and the filtering of frequent small-scale floods at the expense of large disasters.