Model-Based Clustering of Trends and Cycles of Nitrate Concentrations in Rivers Across France
Model-Based Clustering of Trends and Cycles of Nitrate Concentrations in Rivers Across France
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DOI：
10.1007/s13253-022-00513-2
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发表时间：
2022-09
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Matthew Heiner;Matthew J. Heaton;Benjamin W. Abbott;P. White;C. Minaudo;R. Dupas
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作者：
Matthew Heiner;Matthew J. Heaton;Benjamin W. Abbott;P. White;C. Minaudo;R. Dupas
人类活动导致的硝酸盐升高在全球范围内造成生态系统和经济危害。控制河流硝酸盐浓度时空动态的因素仍然难以描述和预测。我们分析了法国4450个站点的硝酸盐浓度，以在2010-2017年期间表现出类似趋势和季节性行为的站点分组，并将这些动态与集水特征联系起来。我们采用了潜在变量，贝叶斯混合谐波回归模型推断站点聚类多年的趋势和年度周期的振幅和相位的基础上。我们研究了硝酸盐水平，趋势和季节性参数之间的聚类模式和关系。集群成员资格的概率是由连续的，潜在的变量，被告知与七类协变量，包括地质，水文和土地利用。为了将可解释的参数与协变量联系起来，我们在一个新的框架中分别对振幅和相位进行建模，该框架采用了具有投影正态分布的二元相位回归。分析确定了硝酸盐动态的区域制度，包括趋势分类。这种方法可以揭示超越小规模异质性的一般模式，补充现场一级的评估，为区域到国家一级的水质进展提供信息。本文件所附补充材料可上网查阅。
Elevated nitrate from human activity causes ecosystem and economic harm globally. The factors that control the spatiotemporal dynamics of riverine nitrate concentration remain difficult to describe and predict. We analyzed nitrate concentration from 4450 sites throughout France to group sites that exhibit similar trend and seasonal behaviors during 2010–2017 and relate these dynamics to catchment characteristics. We employed a latent-variable, Bayesian mixture of harmonic regressions model to infer site clustering based on multi-year trend and annual cycle amplitude and phase. We examined clustering patterns and relationships among nitrate level, trend, and seasonality parameters. Cluster membership probabilities were governed by continuous, latent variables that were informed with seven classes of covariates encompassing geology, hydrology, and land use. To relate interpretable parameters to the covariates, we modeled amplitude and phase separately in a novel framework employing a bivariate phase regression with the projected normal distribution. The analysis identified regional regimes of nitrate dynamics, including trend classifications. This approach can reveal general patterns that transcend small-scale heterogeneity, complementing site-level assessments to inform regional- to national-level progress in water quality. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear on-line.