US end-of-life electric vehicle batteries: Dynamic inventory modeling and spatial analysis for regional solutions
US end-of-life electric vehicle batteries: Dynamic inventory modeling and spatial analysis for regional solutions
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.resconrec.2019.01.021
复制
发表时间：
2019-06-01
影响因子：
13.2
通讯作者：
Chen, Wei-Qiang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ai, Ning;Zheng, Junjun;Chen, Wei-Qiang
虽然电动汽车(EV)已被推广为绿色消费，但按照目前的做法，对报废(EOL)EV电池的不当或不适当管理，损害了采用EV的好处。本研究旨在为不同地理尺度(国家、州、县)的EOL电动车电池物流分析及适时管理的理论研究做出贡献，并从理论上检验两种电池寿命情景(即持续3-8年且随时间动态增加)、三种报废概率函数(即均匀、截断正态和威布尔)以及三种电动汽车销售预测(即低、中、高)。结果表明，短期EOL量(到2025年)可能对寿命参数特别敏感。长期估计涉及与电动汽车市场渗透率相关的大部分不确定性。不同的丢弃概率函数通常得出类似的结果。在实践中，结果表明，需要必要的基础设施，以适当的EOL EV电池管理，比公众可能认为的更快。这项研究呼吁进行同时考虑时间和空间因素的区域规划。为了说明区域性解决方案的例子，本研究采用加利福尼亚州的经验数据来模拟和空间匹配EOL EV电池集群和可能重复使用EV电池作为储能的可再生能源设施。与此同时，供需之间的空间不匹配，就像其他地区的情况一样，需要在基础设施发展和交通规划方面进行区域范围的协调。
While electric vehicles (EVs) have been promoted for green consumption, improper or inadequate management of end-of-life (EOL) EV batteries, as the current practice, compromises the benefits of EV adoption. This study aims to contribute to both theoretical research of material flow analysis and timely management of EOL EV batteries at various geographic scales (i.e., national, state, and county).Theoretically, this study tests two battery lifespan scenarios (i.e., constantly at 3-8 years and dynamically increasing over time), three discard probability functions (i.e., uniform, truncated normal, and Weibull), and three EV sale projections (i.e., low, moderate, and high). Results show that the short-term EOL volume (by 2025) can be particularly sensitive to the lifespan parameter. The long-term estimates involve most uncertainties related to the EV market penetration. Various discard probability functions generally derive similar results.In practical terms, the results suggest that necessary infrastructure for proper EOL EV battery management is needed sooner than the public may have perceived. This study urges for regional planning that incorporates both temporal and spatial considerations. To illustrate an example of regional solutions, this study adopts empirical data in California to simulate and spatially match EOL EV battery clusters and the renewable energy facilities that can potentially reuse EV batteries as energy storage. Meanwhile, the spatial mis-match between the supply and demand, as can be the case in other regions, calls for region-wide coordination in terms of both infrastructure development and transportation planning.