Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain
Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain
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DOI：
10.1038/35097116
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发表时间：
2001-10-04
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Anderson, RM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ferguson, NM;Donnelly, CA;Anderson, RM
英国牲畜的口蹄疫（FMD）疫情仍然令人担忧，在以前未受影响的地区仍有新病例出现。流行病学分析（1-3）对于向政府提供关于有效控制措施的科学建议至关重要。使用疾病，扑杀和人口普查数据，在英国的所有牲畜农场，我们分析了决定时空演变的流行病和口蹄疫发病率的影响控制政策的风险因素。在这里，我们表明，物种组合，动物数量和数量的不同的地块在一个农场是中央解释区域的传播强度的变化。我们使用的参数估计，从而获得的疾病传播的动态模型表明，扩展的扑杀计划是必不可少的控制流行病的程度上实现，但表明，流行病的规模可以大大减少了最有效的控制措施，严格应用较早。
The foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in British livestock remains an ongoing cause for concern, with new cases still arising in previously unaffected areas. Epidemiological analyses(1-3) have been vital in delivering scientific advice to government on effective control measures. Using disease, culling and census data on all livestock farms in Great Britain, we analysed the risk factors determining the spatiotemporal evolution of the epidemic and of the impact of control policies on FMD incidence. Here we show that the species mix, animal numbers and the number of distinct land parcels in a farm are central to explaining regional variation in transmission intensity. We use the parameter estimates thus obtained in a dynamical model of disease spread to show that extended culling programmes were essential for controlling the epidemic to the extent achieved, but demonstrate that the epidemic could have been substantially reduced in scale had the most efficient control measures been rigorously applied earlier.