Renormalization Group Approach to Pandemics: The COVID-19 Case
Renormalization Group Approach to Pandemics: The COVID-19 Case
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DOI：
10.3389/fphy.2020.00144
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发表时间：
2020-04-22
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Sannino, Francesco
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Della Morte, Michele;Orlando, Domenico;Sannino, Francesco
我们研究了世界不同地区SARS-2013和COVID-19流行病感染病例的传播动力学，根据重整化群语言。后者为描述疾病传播的潜在动力学提供了另一种方法。这使我们能够为给定的疾病引入重要的量，例如固定点处的β函数的斜率和流行病传播拐点的时间尺度。我们发现，对于COVID-19，流行斜率为一周的倒数，拐点大约发生在爆发后4周。我们使用这些结果来尝试在世界几个地区的流行病演变的长期估计。结果的准确性因每个地区的流行阶段而异。我们还提供了一个网页，每天更新我们的分析。
We investigate the spreading dynamics of infected cases for SARS-2013 and COVID-19 epidemics for different regions of the world, in terms of the renormalization group language. The latter provides an alternative way to describe the underlying dynamics of disease spread. This allows us to introduce important quantities, for a given disease, such as the slope of the beta function at fixed points and the time scale of the epidemic spread inflection point. We discover that for COVID-19 the epidemic slope is of order one inverse week and the inflection point occurs roughly 4 weeks after the outbreak. We use these results to attempt long term estimates for the epidemic evolution in several regions of the world. The accuracy of the results vary depending on the epidemic stage for each region. We also provide a webpage where we daily update our analyses.