The dynamics of nuclear proliferation
The dynamics of nuclear proliferation
复制标题
核扩散的动态
DOI：
10.2307/3324654
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发表时间：
1985
影响因子：
7.8
通讯作者：
S. Meyer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Meyer
Stephen M.迈耶从围绕核武器辩论的情绪和言论中退出来，对核武器扩散的潜在决定因素进行了系统的研究。他在审视目前的核扩散理论时问道：一个获得制造核武器技术能力的国家最终一定要这样做吗？在一项以严谨和可及性著称的分析中，迈耶提供了第一个实证的统计模型，解释了为什么某些国家成为核大国。他的调查结果显然与核扩散的速度受技术需要控制的概念相矛盾，并表明政治和军事因素是各国过去决定获得或放弃发展核武器的原因。
Stephen M. Meyer steps back from the emotions and rhetoric surrounding the nuclear arms debates to provide a systematic examination of the underlying determinants of nuclear weapons proliferation. Looking at current theories of nuclear proliferation, he asks: Must a nation that acquires the technical capability to manufacture nuclear weapons eventually do so? In an analysis, remarkable for its rigor and accessibility, Meyer provides the first empirical, statistical model explaining why particular countries became nuclear powers when they did. His findings clearly contradict the notion that the pace of nuclear proliferation is controlled by a technological imperative and show that political and military factors account for the past decisions of nations to acquire or forgo the development of nuclear weapons.