Reliability Back Analysis of Shear StrengthParameters of Landslide with Three-Dimensional Upper Bound Limit AnalysisTheory
Reliability Back Analysis of Shear StrengthParameters of Landslide with Three-Dimensional Upper Bound Limit AnalysisTheory
复制标题
基于三维上限分析理论的滑坡抗剪强度参数可靠性反分析
DOI：
10.1007/s10346-015-0604-3
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Y. Zhang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
L. Zhao;S. Zuo;Y. Lin;L. Li;Y. Zhang
确定滑坡面的抗剪强度参数对于滑坡稳定性评价和工程设计至关重要。本研究提出了一种新的参数反分析方法，将极限分析的2D/3D上限方法与可靠度理论相结合，以准确确定具有单一破坏面的3D边坡的抗剪强度参数。所提出的可靠性反分析方法克服了传统边坡稳定性确定性分析方法无法考虑岩土参数的随机性和不确定性的缺点。基于可靠性理论，研究了一阶可靠性方法（通过电子表格和Matlab实现，本文分别称为电子表格方法和约束优化方法）和蒙特卡罗模拟两种方法。考虑孔隙水压力或其他复杂条件，仅建立一个平衡方程即可得到can和φ的优化值，解决了单一3D滑动面条件下的强度参数反分析问题。相关性研究表明，can与φ之间的负相关性对反演结果影响较大，在不考虑这种负相关性的情况下，可靠性指标取值较为保守。以湖南省湘西县芦溪镇朱雀洞村折线滑面坡实际滑坡模型为基础，进行抗剪强度参数反分析，并提出滑坡断面选择建议。结果表明，可靠性理论确定的反分析结果与调查和试验结果吻合较好。结果发现，与传统的确定性反演方法相比，该方法在确定剪切参数值方面更加准确和有效。
It is essential to determine the shear strength parameterscandφon the sliding surface for stability evaluation and engineering design of a landslide. In this study, a new parameter back analysis method is proposed by combining the 2D/3D upper bound method of limit analysis and reliability theory to accurately determine the shear strength parameters for a 3D slope with a single failure surface. The proposed reliability back analysis method overcomes the shortcomings of the traditional deterministic analysis method of slope stability that cannot take into account the randomness and uncertainty of geotechnical parameters. Based on the reliability theory, two methods were studied: first-order reliability method (implemented by spreadsheet and Matlab, called spreadsheet method and constrained optimization method, respectively, in this paper) and Monte Carlo simulation. The optimized values ofcandφwere obtained by establishing only one balance equation with the consideration of the pore water pressure or other complex conditions, which can solve the problem of the back analysis of strength parameters for a single 3D sliding surface condition. The correlation research showed that the negative correlation betweencandφgreatly affected the back analysis results, and the reliability index values were conservative without considering such a negative correlation. A case study for the back analysis of shear strength parameters is conducted based on a practical landslide model with a broken line slip surface slope in Zhuquedong village, Luxi town, Xiangxi County, Hunan Province, China, and a suggestion for the selection of landslide cross section is presented. The results show that the back analysis results determined by the reliability theory coincide well with the survey and experimental results. The proposed method is found to be more accurate and effective in determining the values of shear parameters than that of the traditional deterministic inversion method.