Middle-income traps and complexity in economic development
Middle-income traps and complexity in economic development
复制标题
DOI：
10.1515/snde-2021-0100
复制
发表时间：
2022-09
影响因子：
0.8
通讯作者：
Taka-aki Asano;Akihisa Shibata;M. Yokoo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Taka-aki Asano;Akihisa Shibata;M. Yokoo
在本文中，我们建立了一个简单的多技术重叠代模型，该模型展示了多种经济发展模式。特别是，我们的数值模拟表明，对于给定的一组参数值，各种类型的发展模式，如中等收入陷阱、贫困陷阱、周期性或混沌波动和高收入路径可以共存，而哪种模式的实现仅取决于资本的初始值。对于另一组参数值，我们表明，由于弹球效应，从中等收入水平开始的经济体可以在经历短暂的混沌运动后以看似随机的方式起飞到高收入状态或陷入贫困陷阱。我们的研究结果可以统一地解释观察到的复杂的经济发展模式。
Abstract In this paper, we develop a simple multi-technology overlapping generations model that exhibits a wide variety of economic development patterns. In particular, our numerical simulations demonstrate that for a given set of parameter values, various types of development patterns such as the middle-income trap, the poverty trap, periodic or chaotic fluctuations, and high-income paths can coexist, and which pattern is realized depends only on the initial value of capital. For another set of parameter values, we show that, due to the pinball effect, an economy starting at a middle-income level can take off to the high-income state or get caught in the poverty trap in a seemingly random way after undergoing transient chaotic motions. Our results can explain observed complicated patterns of economic development in a unified manner.