Consumption- and productivity-adjusted dependency ratio with household structure heterogeneity in China
Consumption- and productivity-adjusted dependency ratio with household structure heterogeneity in China
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jeoa.2020.100276
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发表时间：
2020-10-01
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Cheng, Yuan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Han, Xuehui;Cheng, Yuan
本文利用2011年中国家庭金融调查数据，通过回归模型，构建了一个新的抚养比测度模型，该模型考虑了年轻人和老年人的消费需求，以及中年人的生产率。研究发现：（1）消费和生产率调整后的抚养比始终低于传统定义的抚养比;（2）传统抚养比与消费和生产率调整后的抚养比之间的差异在未来会越来越大;（3）家庭构成显著影响家庭消费和医疗支出。相对年轻的老年人与子女一起生活，减少了年轻成员的消费。与与子女同住的老年人相比，独居老年人的消费和医疗支出较高。与以往的研究结果相反，医疗费用并不随年龄的增长而增加，但它与年龄呈倒U型关系。在中国，56岁至65岁的年龄组的医疗费用增长最快。我们还模拟了小家庭、城市化和经济增长对中国消费的影响。
Using the 2011 Chinese Household Finance Survey data, with a regression model, we construct a new dependency ratio measure by taking into account the consumption needs of the young and elderly people, and the productivity of middle-aged people. We find that (i) the consumptionand productivity-adjusted dependency ratio are consistently lower than the one that is traditionally defined; (ii) the differences between traditional dependency ratio and the consumptionand productivity-adjusted dependency ratio grow larger in more distant future; and (iii) household composition significantly affect household consumption and medical expenditures. The relatively younger elderly living with their offspring reduces the consumption of the young members. The elderly living alone shows higher consumption and medical expenditures compared to their counterparts who live with their offspring. Contrary to previous findings, the medical cost does not increase with age, but it exhibits an inverted U-shape relationship with age. The age group between 56 and 65 experiences sharpest increases in medical cost in China. We also simulate the impacts of smaller households, urbanization, and economic growth on consumption for China.