Adjoint analysis of the 2007 all time Arctic sea‐ice minimum
Adjoint analysis of the 2007 all time Arctic sea‐ice minimum
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DOI：
10.1029/2008gl036323
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发表时间：
2009-02
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
F. Kauker;T. Kaminski;M. Karcher;R. Giering;R. Gerdes;M. Vossbeck
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Kauker;T. Kaminski;M. Karcher;R. Giering;R. Gerdes;M. Vossbeck
过去二十年，夏季北极海冰范围稳步缩小。 2007 年的价值仍远低于推断长期趋势的预期。我们基于耦合海洋-海冰模型对这一非凡事件进行了定量分析。这种新方法可以有效评估 2007 年 9 月冰雪覆盖区域对任何潜在影响因素的敏感性。我们可以将 86% 的冰面积减少追溯到以下四个因素：5 月和 6 月的风况、9 月 2 米的气温和 3 月的冰厚度。三分之二的减少是由六月底已知的因素决定的，这表明早期预测的可能性很大。
The past two decades saw a steady decrease of summer Arctic sea ice extent. The 2007 value was yet considerably lower than expected from extrapolating the long‐term trend. We present a quantitative analysis of this extraordinary event based on the adjoint of a coupled ocean‐sea ice model. This new approach allows to efficiently assess the sensitivity of the ice‐covered area in September 2007 with respect to any potential influence factor. We can trace back 86% of the ice area reduction to only four of these factors: May and June wind conditions, September 2‐meter temperature, and March ice thickness. Two thirds of the reduction are determined by factors that are already known at the end of June, suggesting a high potential for an early prediction.