Obstacles to climate change adaptation decisions: a case study of sea-level rise and coastal protection measures in Kiribati
Obstacles to climate change adaptation decisions: a case study of sea-level rise and coastal protection measures in Kiribati
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DOI：
10.1007/s11625-014-0242-z
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发表时间：
2014-07-01
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Webber, Sophie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Donner, Simon D.;Webber, Sophie
国际援助越来越侧重于适应气候变化。在最近举行的《联合国气候变化框架公约》缔约方会议上，发达世界同意迅速增加国际援助，以帮助发展中世界应对气候变化的影响。在本文中，我们研究了国际支持的气候变化适应项目所面临的决策挑战，使用的例子，努力实施海岸保护措施（如海堤，红树林种植）在基里巴斯。基里巴斯是世界银行支持的第一个国家级气候变化适应项目。根据8年来进行的采访和文件研究，我们追踪了影响沿海保护措施决策的力量，从气候变化预测的可变性和不确定性开始，通过不同措施之间的权衡，到社会、政治和最终做出决策的经济背景。然后，我们讨论如何次优的适应措施可能会实施，尽管多年的规划，咨询和技术研究。这种对现实世界气候变化适应过程的定性分析表明，在不忽视长期未来的同时，采用文化上适当的短期（类似于20年）规划范围，可以减少科学不确定性对决策的影响，并提供从错误中学习的机会，重新评估科学，调整次优投资。这一适应方针的限制因素可能是能否获得持续的长期资金。
International aid is increasingly focused on adaptation to climate change. At recent meetings of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the developed world agreed to rapidly increase international assistance to help the developing world respond to the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we examine the decision-making challenges facing internationally supported climate change adaptation projects, using the example of efforts to implement coastal protection measures (e.g. sea walls, mangrove planting) in Kiribati. The central equatorial Pacific country is home to the Kiribati Adaptation Project, the first national-level climate change adaptation project supported by the World Bank. Drawing on interview and document research conducted over an 8-year period, we trace the forces influencing decisions about coastal protection measures, starting from the variability and uncertainty in climate change projections, through the trade-offs between different measures, to the social, political, and economic context in which decisions are finally made. We then discuss how sub-optimal adaptation measures may be implemented despite years of planning, consultation, and technical studies. This qualitative analysis of the real-world process of climate change adaptation reveals that embracing a culturally appropriate and short-term (similar to 20 years) planning horizon, while not ignoring the longer-term future, may reduce the influence of scientific uncertainty on decisions and provide opportunities to learn from mistakes, reassess the science, and adjust suboptimal investments. The limiting element in this approach to adaptation is likely to be the availability of consistent, long-term financing.